Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Turkey military action against Yemen by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:21 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 8.5% in Turkey military action against Yemen by...? — $7.0K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $72.
Leading outcome
December 31
8%
A 8.5% price implies roughly a 8-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
December 318.5%
October 310.6%
Bid
8¢
Ask
9¢
Spread
1¢
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Range since October 12, 2026: 8.5% – 12.5% · Opened at 12.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Turkey military action against Yemen by...?
Category
Yemen, Turkey, Houthis, Military, Geopolitics, Middle East, Military Actions, Military Strikes
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$7.0K
Volume (24h)
$72
Liquidity
$23.4K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31 — 8.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 8.5%.

Since October 12, 2026, December 31 has traded between 8.5% and 12.5%. It opened at 12.5% and last traded at 8.5%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202610.5%
Oct 15, 20268.5%
Oct 16, 20268.5%
Oct 18, 20268.5%
Oct 19, 20268.5%
Oct 20, 20268.5%
Oct 24, 20268.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 8.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 318¢8.5%—$3.3K47.8%
October 311¢0.6%-0.1 pts$3.6K52.2%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 8¢ / ask 9¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$7.0K has been traded on this event in total, $72 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey takes a qualifying military action against Yemen between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Turkey, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Turkey. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Turkey directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 973 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Smoggy-SunglassesNo973$891
Few-PreventionYes391$33
Past-DisguiseYes205$17
Essential-DiaristYes132$11
Quizzical-ArroganceYes112$9
Belated-GlueYes95$8
Linear-LeaverNo44$40
Tricky-UsherNo35$32
Oddball-PoisonYes33$3
Impassioned-ChastityYes30$3

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $1.3K at 89.9%BUY No — $832 at 85.5%SELL No — $664 at 99.2%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 11:03 AM ETYesBUY0.7%$1
Oct 22, 02:31 PM ETNoSELL99.2%$664
Oct 19, 08:50 AM ETYesBUY9.0%$1
Oct 19, 08:50 AM ETYesBUY1.0%$1
Oct 17, 07:09 AM ETYesSELL0.1%$0
Oct 15, 06:41 PM ETNoSELL98.8%$5
Oct 15, 06:39 PM ETNoSELL99.0%$40
Oct 15, 01:17 PM ETYesSELL0.1%$0
Oct 15, 07:14 AM ETNoBUY91.7%$3
Oct 15, 12:30 AM ETYesSELL0.1%$0

Related markets

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Turkey military action against Yemen by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 8.5%. Next is October 31 at 0.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/turkey-military-action-against-yemen-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Turkey military action against Yemen by...??

$7.0K in total volume, with $72 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Turkey military action against Yemen by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Turkey military action against Yemen by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 8.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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