As of October 24, 2026, 09:29 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 90.3% in Vatican III in 2026? — $17 traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 90.3%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.7 pts; past week: -41.0 pts; past month: +1.1 pts.
Since June 30, 2026, No has traded between 48.9% and 96.5%. It opened at 73.5% and last traded at 90.3%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 49.3% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 49.3% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 49.1% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 49.2% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 88.6% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 89.6% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 90.3% |
No is favored at 90.3%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 90¢ | 90.3% | +0.7 pts | $17 | 100.0% |
| Yes | 10¢ | 9.7% | -0.7 pts | $17 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 15¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 17¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$17 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Pope convokes any ecumenical council between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only ecumenical councils will qualify. Plenary or provincial councils will not be considered. This market will resolve according to announcements from the Pope, Vatican officials, or a consensus of credible reporting. Any official announcement will qualify, regardless of if or when the council actually occurs.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 7 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hungry-Sturgeon-Dolman | Yes | 7 | $1 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Hemisphere | No | 7 | $6 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 5 | $1 |
| Imaginary-Closet | No | 5 | $5 |
| Wordy-Doctrine | Yes | 5 | $0 |
| Quarrelsome-Dictaphone | No | 5 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 04:10 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $1 |
| Jul 09, 04:54 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $5 |
| Jul 01, 03:12 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:25 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 90.3%. Next is Yes at 9.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/vatican-iii-in-2026-20260630184835343?via=bro
$17 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 90.3% as of October 24, 2026, 09:25 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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