As of October 24, 2026, 06:23 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 1 - 31, 2026 at 77.0% in When will the Rhine River return to normal levels? — $164.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, October 1 - 31, 2026, is priced at 77.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +9.5 pts; past week: +41.5 pts; past month: +40.5 pts.
Since September 06, 2026, October 1 - 31, 2026 has traded between 13.5% and 77.0%. It opened at 49.5% and last traded at 77.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 37.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 53.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 73.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 60.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 57.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 69.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 77.0% |
October 1 - 31, 2026 is favored at 77.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 1 - 31, 2026 | 77¢ | 77.0% | +9.5 pts | $75.8K | 46.1% |
| No return before November 1, 2026 | 20¢ | 19.5% | -12.0 pts | $62.0K | 37.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 74¢ / ask 80¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$164.4K has been traded on this event in total, $5.7K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 15,260 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 15,260 | $3.5K |
| Awesome-Availability | Yes | 7,541 | $5.8K |
| Spiffy-Enactment-Strength | Yes | 5,169 | $4.0K |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 3,364 | $2.6K |
| Pure-Threat | No | 1,313 | $302 |
| Advanced-Mortgage | Yes | 1,279 | $985 |
| Velvety-Burn | No | 1,227 | $282 |
| Rapid-Cartel | Yes | 575 | $442 |
| Clear-Cut-Tuna | Yes | 565 | $435 |
| Supportive-Solitaire-Process | Yes | 554 | $427 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:39 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 80.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 05:39 PM ET | No | SELL | 80.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 05:39 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 05:38 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 80.0% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 05:38 PM ET | No | SELL | 80.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 05:30 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 76.9% | $122 |
| Oct 24, 05:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 05:04 PM ET | No | SELL | 81.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 05:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 81.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 05:00 PM ET | No | SELL | 81.0% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 1 - 31, 2026 at 77.0%. Next is No return before November 1, 2026 at 19.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-20260906?via=bro
$164.4K in total volume, with $5.7K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 06:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100.
October 1 - 31, 2026, priced at 77.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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