As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 1 at 85.0% in Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? — $3.81M traded so far.
The leading outcome, 1, is priced at 85.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.5 pts; past week: +6.0 pts; past month: +10.5 pts.
Since November 12, 2025, 1 has traded between 8.0% and 85.0%. It opened at 33.0% and last traded at 85.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 79.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 82.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 81.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 81.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 81.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 82.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 85.0% |
1 is favored at 85.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 85¢ | 85.0% | +2.5 pts | $734.7K | 19.3% |
| 2 | 12¢ | 12.5% | -0.5 pts | $475.5K | 12.5% |
| 3 | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $535.5K | 14.0% |
| 6 or lower | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $605.2K | 15.9% |
| 4 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $555.0K | 14.5% |
| 5 | 0¢ | 0.1% | -0.1 pts | $908.7K | 23.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 82¢ / ask 88¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.81M has been traded on this event in total, $3.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end March 01, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 163,019 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 163,019 | $24.5K |
| Charming-Pupil | Yes | 82,318 | $70.0K |
| Wobbly-Pants | Yes | 42,625 | $36.2K |
| First-Unique | Yes | 25,252 | $21.5K |
| Sniveling-Produce | Yes | 21,323 | $18.1K |
| Stained-Cynic | Yes | 15,878 | $13.5K |
| Wonderful-Scotch | Yes | 14,507 | $12.3K |
| Welcome-Technologist | No | 13,959 | $2.1K |
| Favorite-Mammoth | No | 9,436 | $1.4K |
| Honest-Solicitation | No | 9,040 | $1.4K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:02 PM ET | No | SELL | 9.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:53 PM ET | No | BUY | 17.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 02:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $75 |
| Oct 24, 02:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $134 |
| Oct 24, 02:39 PM ET | No | SELL | 10.0% | $100 |
| Oct 24, 02:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $134 |
| Oct 24, 02:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $75 |
| Oct 24, 08:36 AM ET | No | SELL | 16.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 07:25 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 83.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 07:20 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 82.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 1 at 85.0%. Next is 2 at 12.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-record?via=bro
$3.81M in total volume, with $3.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 01, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt.
1, priced at 85.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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