As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Google at 55.5% in Which company has the best AI model end of November? — $404.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Google, is priced at 55.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts; past week: +11.0 pts; past month: +48.0 pts.
Since September 18, 2026, Google has traded between 7.0% and 58.5%. It opened at 10.5% and last traded at 55.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 54.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 46.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 47.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 44.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 49.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 55.5% |
Google is favored at 55.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56¢ | 55.5% | -1.5 pts | $76.1K | 18.8% | |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Anthropic | 38¢ | 38.0% | +2.0 pts | $71.5K | 17.7% |
| OpenAI | 3¢ | 3.3% | +0.8 pts | $29.3K | 7.2% |
| Meta | 1¢ | 1.0% | -0.4 pts | $31.8K | 7.9% |
| Z.ai | 0¢ | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $22.5K | 5.6% |
| SpaceXAI | 0¢ | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $28.0K | 6.9% |
| Alibaba | 0¢ | 0.4% | -0.2 pts | $21.4K | 5.3% |
| Moonshot | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $25.1K | 6.2% |
| DeepSeek | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $44.2K | 10.9% |
| Xiaomi | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $20.3K | 5.0% |
| Baidu | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $5.5K | 1.4% |
| Amazon | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $2.3K | 0.6% |
| ByteDance | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $5.4K | 1.3% |
| Nvidia | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.1K | 0.3% |
| Thinky | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.9K | 0.5% |
| MiniMax | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $2.5K | 0.6% |
| Mistral | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $2.3K | 0.6% |
| Meituan | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $4.0K | 1.0% |
| Tencent | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $3.5K | 0.9% |
| StepFun | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $2.4K | 0.6% |
| Microsoft | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $3.2K | 0.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 54¢ / ask 57¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$404.4K has been traded on this event in total, $12.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 35 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 21,410 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 21,410 | $9.5K |
| Distant-Inhibitor | Yes | 11,276 | $6.3K |
| Ragged-Thongs | Yes | 11,137 | $6.2K |
| Secret-Allegation | No | 9,273 | $4.1K |
| Grumpy-Urn | Yes | 6,116 | $3.4K |
| 0xbc3e0e48… | No | 6,026 | $2.7K |
| Forsaken-Mandarin | No | 4,137 | $1.8K |
| Golden-Unemployment | Yes | 2,452 | $1.4K |
| Scared-Administrator | Yes | 2,357 | $1.3K |
| Accurate-Spirit | Yes | 2,099 | $1.2K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:02 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 37.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 03:12 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 56.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 03:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 39.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 03:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 40.0% | $24 |
| Oct 24, 03:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 43.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 03:11 PM ET | No | SELL | 62.0% | $38 |
| Oct 24, 01:44 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 59.0% | $53 |
| Oct 24, 01:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 64.0% | $45 |
| Oct 24, 01:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 64.0% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 01:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $70 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is Google at 55.5%. Next is Other at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-november?via=bro
$404.4K in total volume, with $12.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 35 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control.
Google, priced at 55.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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