As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Anthropic at 89.4% in Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October? — $58.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Anthropic, is priced at 89.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -6.3 pts; past week: -4.6 pts; past month: +6.9 pts.
Since August 13, 2026, Anthropic has traded between 50.5% and 96.7%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 89.4%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 83.6% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 86.7% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 91.7% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 96.7% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 89.4% |
Anthropic is favored at 89.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 89¢ | 89.4% | -6.3 pts | $32.1K | 54.8% |
| Company A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| OpenAI | 1¢ | 0.7% | -0.9 pts | $8.5K | 14.4% |
| Moonshot | 1¢ | 0.6% | +0.4 pts | $1.3K | 2.3% |
| Meta | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $2.2K | 3.7% |
| DeepSeek | 0¢ | 0.3% | -0.2 pts | $942 | 1.6% |
| 0¢ | 0.2% | -0.3 pts | $3.9K | 6.6% | |
| Baidu | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $800 | 1.4% |
| SpaceXAI | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $563 | 1.0% |
| ByteDance | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $663 | 1.1% |
| StepFun | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $559 | 1.0% |
| Nvidia | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $901 | 1.5% |
| Thinky | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $636 | 1.1% |
| Alibaba | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $552 | 0.9% |
| Z.ai | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $496 | 0.8% |
| Xiaomi | 0¢ | 0.1% | -0.2 pts | $921 | 1.6% |
| Amazon | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $888 | 1.5% |
| MiniMax | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $482 | 0.8% |
| Mistral | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $495 | 0.8% |
| Meituan | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $491 | 0.8% |
| Tencent | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $775 | 1.3% |
| Microsoft | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $477 | 0.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 89¢ / ask 90¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$58.6K has been traded on this event in total, $8.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 32 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Resolution source: https://livebench.ai/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,579 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,579 | $167 |
| Modern-Overload | Yes | 800 | $715 |
| Perfumed-Moat | Yes | 542 | $484 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 388 | $41 |
| Primary-Profile | Yes | 384 | $343 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 346 | $310 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 341 | $36 |
| Roasted-Crossstitch | Yes | 140 | $125 |
| Annual-Former-Survivor | Yes | 105 | $94 |
| Grumpy-Invader | Yes | 100 | $89 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:32 AM ET | No | SELL | 10.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 09:36 AM ET | No | SELL | 9.9% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 05:25 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.5% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 05:24 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 86.4% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 05:16 AM ET | No | SELL | 9.4% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 05:16 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 89.7% | $249 |
| Oct 24, 05:16 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 87.0% | $696 |
| Oct 24, 03:37 AM ET | No | SELL | 14.3% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 02:42 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 74.7% | $189 |
| Oct 24, 02:24 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 69.1% | $91 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is Anthropic at 89.4%. Next is Company A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-on-livebench-overall-end-of-october?via=bro
$58.6K in total volume, with $8.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 32 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://livebench.ai/.
Anthropic, priced at 89.4% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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