Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Saudi Arabia at 24.0% in Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026? — $151.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $9.6K.
Leading outcome
Saudi Arabia
24%
A 24.0% price implies roughly a 24-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +1.5 pts7D +9.5 pts
Saudi Arabia24.0%
Russia7.0%
Bid
23¢
Ask
25¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 14, 2026: 13.5% – 40.0% · Opened at 17.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?
Category
AI, FBI, Tech, Courts, OpenAI, Big Tech, Geopolitics, Saudi Arabia
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$151.5K
Volume (24h)
$9.6K
Liquidity
$187.4K
Markets
10
Leading outcome
Saudi Arabia — 24.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Saudi Arabia, is priced at 24.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts; past week: +9.5 pts.

Since October 14, 2026, Saudi Arabia has traded between 13.5% and 40.0%. It opened at 17.5% and last traded at 22.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202615.5%
Oct 16, 202616.0%
Oct 18, 202613.5%
Oct 19, 202635.0%
Oct 20, 202640.0%
Oct 22, 202627.5%
Oct 23, 202622.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Saudi Arabia is favored at 24.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Saudi Arabia24¢24.0%+1.5 pts$41.5K27.4%
Russia7¢7.0%+2.5 pts$25.2K16.6%
Meta6¢5.5%—$15.7K10.4%
China4¢4.0%—$17.9K11.8%
Anthropic4¢3.9%-0.2 pts$14.5K9.6%
SpaceXAI / Elon Musk3¢3.1%+0.1 pts$9.3K6.2%
Iran3¢3.0%+0.1 pts$9.1K6.0%
North Korea2¢2.4%-0.1 pts$1.7K1.1%
Israel2¢2.1%—$1.5K1.0%
Google2¢2.0%—$14.9K9.8%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 23¢ / ask 25¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$151.5K has been traded on this event in total, $9.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 10 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

On October 13, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that Abdulrahman Alfozan, an OpenAI employee and Saudi national, had been arrested and charged after allegedly installing a covert audio recording device in an executive conference room at OpenAI's San Francisco offices (see: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/saudi-national-arrested-installing-surreptitious-audio-recording-device-openai). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. federal government or OpenAI publicly alleges that Abdulrahman Alfozan acted on behalf of the listed entity in connection with this incident between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For listed countries, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the government of the listed country, its intelligence or security services, or a state-affiliated entity of the listed country. Alfozan's nationality alone will not qualify. For listed companies or individuals, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the listed company, its subsidiaries, or the listed individual. A qualifying allegation must definitively state that Alfozan acted on behalf of, or under the direction, control, or sponsorship of, the listed entity. Statements that merely speculate about or suggest possible ties, or that describe only contact, cooperation, or association with the listed entity, will not qualify. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,587 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Cheerful-EphemeraNo4,587$3.5K
Ragged-ThongsYes3,455$829
Accomplished-DragYes2,101$504
Remarkable-UnderpassNo1,125$855
Exhausted-StringNo859$653
Golden-UnemploymentYes598$143
Belated-GlueYes591$142
Monumental-BankerNo559$425
Wide-Eyed-DarkNo371$282
Known-UseNo351$267

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $939 at 94.0%SELL No — $386 at 77.3%BUY No — $380 at 95.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:57 PM ETYesSELL3.1%$3
Oct 24, 05:57 PM ETYesSELL3.0%$2
Oct 24, 05:57 PM ETYesSELL4.0%$20
Oct 24, 05:57 PM ETNoBUY96.8%$48
Oct 24, 05:57 PM ETNoBUY77.0%$15
Oct 24, 05:57 PM ETYesSELL24.0%$26
Oct 24, 05:57 PM ETNoBUY77.0%$15
Oct 24, 05:57 PM ETNoBUY77.0%$15
Oct 24, 04:09 PM ETYesSELL24.0%$2
Oct 24, 02:22 PM ETNoBUY75.0%$12

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is Saudi Arabia at 24.0%. Next is Russia at 7.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-the-openai-spy-be-accused-of-working-for-in-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026??

$151.5K in total volume, with $9.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 10 markets.

When does Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?, according to Polymarket traders?

Saudi Arabia, priced at 24.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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