As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Saudi Arabia at 24.0% in Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026? — $151.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Saudi Arabia, is priced at 24.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts; past week: +9.5 pts.
Since October 14, 2026, Saudi Arabia has traded between 13.5% and 40.0%. It opened at 17.5% and last traded at 22.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 15.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 16.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 13.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 35.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 40.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 27.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 22.5% |
Saudi Arabia is favored at 24.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 24¢ | 24.0% | +1.5 pts | $41.5K | 27.4% |
| Russia | 7¢ | 7.0% | +2.5 pts | $25.2K | 16.6% |
| Meta | 6¢ | 5.5% | — | $15.7K | 10.4% |
| China | 4¢ | 4.0% | — | $17.9K | 11.8% |
| Anthropic | 4¢ | 3.9% | -0.2 pts | $14.5K | 9.6% |
| SpaceXAI / Elon Musk | 3¢ | 3.1% | +0.1 pts | $9.3K | 6.2% |
| Iran | 3¢ | 3.0% | +0.1 pts | $9.1K | 6.0% |
| North Korea | 2¢ | 2.4% | -0.1 pts | $1.7K | 1.1% |
| Israel | 2¢ | 2.1% | — | $1.5K | 1.0% |
| 2¢ | 2.0% | — | $14.9K | 9.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 23¢ / ask 25¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$151.5K has been traded on this event in total, $9.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 10 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
On October 13, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that Abdulrahman Alfozan, an OpenAI employee and Saudi national, had been arrested and charged after allegedly installing a covert audio recording device in an executive conference room at OpenAI's San Francisco offices (see: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/saudi-national-arrested-installing-surreptitious-audio-recording-device-openai). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. federal government or OpenAI publicly alleges that Abdulrahman Alfozan acted on behalf of the listed entity in connection with this incident between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For listed countries, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the government of the listed country, its intelligence or security services, or a state-affiliated entity of the listed country. Alfozan's nationality alone will not qualify. For listed companies or individuals, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the listed company, its subsidiaries, or the listed individual. A qualifying allegation must definitively state that Alfozan acted on behalf of, or under the direction, control, or sponsorship of, the listed entity. Statements that merely speculate about or suggest possible ties, or that describe only contact, cooperation, or association with the listed entity, will not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,587 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheerful-Ephemera | No | 4,587 | $3.5K |
| Ragged-Thongs | Yes | 3,455 | $829 |
| Accomplished-Drag | Yes | 2,101 | $504 |
| Remarkable-Underpass | No | 1,125 | $855 |
| Exhausted-String | No | 859 | $653 |
| Golden-Unemployment | Yes | 598 | $143 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 591 | $142 |
| Monumental-Banker | No | 559 | $425 |
| Wide-Eyed-Dark | No | 371 | $282 |
| Known-Use | No | 351 | $267 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:57 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.1% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 05:57 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 05:57 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 05:57 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.8% | $48 |
| Oct 24, 05:57 PM ET | No | BUY | 77.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 05:57 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 24.0% | $26 |
| Oct 24, 05:57 PM ET | No | BUY | 77.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 05:57 PM ET | No | BUY | 77.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 04:09 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 24.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:22 PM ET | No | BUY | 75.0% | $12 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is Saudi Arabia at 24.0%. Next is Russia at 7.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-the-openai-spy-be-accused-of-working-for-in-2026?via=bro
$151.5K in total volume, with $9.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 10 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Saudi Arabia, priced at 24.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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