As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 5-7 at 57.5% in Will Claude go down on __ days in October? — $38.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 5-7, is priced at 57.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +41.0 pts; past week: +11.0 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, 5-7 has traded between 28.5% and 57.5%. It opened at 32.5% and last traded at 57.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 48.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 48.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 44.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 36.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 35.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 57.5% |
5-7 is favored at 57.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-7 | 57¢ | 57.5% | +41.0 pts | $13.8K | 35.2% |
| <5 | 31¢ | 31.1% | -50.9 pts | $12.3K | 31.6% |
| 8-10 | 7¢ | 7.1% | +6.6 pts | $7.1K | 18.2% |
| 11-13 | 0¢ | 0.1% | +0.1 pts | $4.8K | 12.2% |
| 14+ | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.1K | 2.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 56¢ / ask 59¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$38.8K has been traded on this event in total, $12.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in October 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,885 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,885 | $801 |
| Prudent-Bracelet-Proceedings | Yes | 1,006 | $579 |
| Conscious-Belligerency | Yes | 320 | $184 |
| Mundane-Divider | Yes | 284 | $163 |
| Judicious-Corsage-Transaction | Yes | 240 | $138 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 195 | $83 |
| Putrid-Elevation-Passbook | No | 195 | $83 |
| Unripe-Exhaustion | Yes | 177 | $102 |
| Skeletal-Liver | Yes | 175 | $100 |
| Oddball-Cofactor | Yes | 162 | $93 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:46 PM ET | No | BUY | 71.2% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 06:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 41.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 06:29 PM ET | No | SELL | 66.6% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 06:28 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $84 |
| Oct 24, 06:16 PM ET | No | BUY | 72.1% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 05:33 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 60.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 05:33 PM ET | No | BUY | 72.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 05:26 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 59.0% | $32 |
| Oct 24, 04:07 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.1% | $100 |
| Oct 24, 04:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 60.0% | $12 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is 5-7 at 57.5%. Next is <5 at 31.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-october?via=bro
$38.8K in total volume, with $12.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
5-7, priced at 57.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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