As of October 24, 2026, 09:01 PM ET, Polymarket traders price $320M at 83.5% in Will CrowdStrike Q3 net new ARR be above __? — $1.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, $320M, is priced at 83.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.0 pts; past week: -4.5 pts.
Since October 15, 2026, $320M has traded between 72.0% and 87.0%. It opened at 72.0% and last traded at 83.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 74.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 77.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 79.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 87.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 80.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 83.5% |
$320M is favored at 83.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $320M | 84¢ | 83.5% | +2.0 pts | $337 | 17.4% |
| $360M | 75¢ | 75.0% | -1.5 pts | $555 | 28.7% |
| $400M | 34¢ | 34.0% | — | $100 | 5.2% |
| $440M | 14¢ | 14.0% | +6.0 pts | $945 | 48.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 11¢ (bid 78¢ / ask 89¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.9K has been traded on this event in total, $6 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 02, 2026, 06:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if CrowdStrike's net new ARR for the third fiscal quarter of 2027, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is CrowdStrike's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 67 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | No | 67 | $11 |
| Attentive-Crewman | Yes | 30 | $25 |
| Angelic-Craw | Yes | 20 | $17 |
| Motherly-Parliament-Lament | No | 20 | $3 |
| Fixed-Eaglet | Yes | 19 | $16 |
| 0x6fa70d26… | Yes | 17 | $14 |
| Favorable-Crayfish | Yes | 1 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:32 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 09:09 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 05:49 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 06:31 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 08:10 AM ET | No | SELL | 13.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 08:10 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 88.0% | $9 |
| Oct 20, 12:49 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 80.0% | $8 |
| Oct 19, 06:00 PM ET | No | SELL | 15.0% | $3 |
| Oct 19, 06:00 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 87.0% | $17 |
| Oct 19, 09:23 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is $320M at 83.5%. Next is $360M at 75.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-crowdstrike-q3-net-new-arr-be-above?via=bro
$1.9K in total volume, with $6 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 02, 2026, 06:00 PM ET.
$320M, priced at 83.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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