As of October 24, 2026, 09:09 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 86.5% in Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30? — $1.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 86.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: -6.0 pts; past month: +1.5 pts.
Since June 26, 2026, No has traded between 53.5% and 92.0%. It opened at 78.0% and last traded at 86.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 61.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 77.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 73.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 80.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 87.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 86.5% |
No is favored at 86.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 86¢ | 86.5% | -1.0 pts | $1.1K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 14¢ | 13.5% | +1.0 pts | $1.1K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 11¢ (bid 8¢ / ask 19¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) reclassifies Indonesia as a Frontier Market at any point by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” An official MSCI announcement of reclassification will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution, even if such reclassification does not go into effect by the date listed above. Announcements that MSCI is considering or exploring reclassification will not be sufficient to resolve the market. The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 259 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ambitious-Accident | Yes | 259 | $35 |
| Clueless-Dugout-Tomtom | No | 175 | $151 |
| Vacant-Legacy | No | 162 | $140 |
| Different-Windshield | Yes | 109 | $15 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 82 | $11 |
| Repentant-Stomach | No | 80 | $69 |
| Cultured-Donation | No | 34 | $29 |
| Adored-Colonisation | No | 30 | $26 |
| Original-Anything-Petition | Yes | 30 | $4 |
| Winding-Comfortable | Yes | 29 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 08:37 AM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $45 |
| Oct 19, 07:07 AM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $10 |
| Oct 18, 11:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.6% | $12 |
| Oct 17, 01:43 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 26.0% | $2 |
| Oct 17, 01:05 AM ET | No | BUY | 78.9% | $59 |
| Oct 16, 11:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.0% | $2 |
| Oct 16, 07:05 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $1 |
| Oct 16, 05:34 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.0% | $10 |
| Oct 16, 04:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $2 |
| Oct 16, 12:33 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $88 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 86.5%. Next is Yes at 13.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-msci-downgrade-indonesia-to-frontier-market-status-by-november-30-20260625205132272?via=bro
$1.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 86.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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