Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will NATO countries clash with each other by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 17.0% in Will NATO countries clash with each other by...? — $64.9K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
December 31, 2027
17%
A 17.0% price implies roughly a 17-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +4.0 pts7D −2.5 pts
December 31, 202717.0%
December 31, 20264.1%
Bid
6¢
Ask
28¢
Spread
22¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 09, 2026: 13.0% – 18.5% · Opened at 16.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will NATO countries clash with each other by...?
Category
Greenland, Geopolitics, Trump, World, NATO
Scheduled end
December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$64.9K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$22.1K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31, 2027 — 17.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 17.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +4.0 pts; past week: -2.5 pts.

Since October 09, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 13.0% and 18.5%. It opened at 16.5% and last traded at 17.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202617.5%
Oct 18, 202618.5%
Oct 19, 202618.0%
Oct 20, 202613.5%
Oct 22, 202616.0%
Oct 23, 202613.0%
Oct 24, 202617.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31, 2027 is favored at 17.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 31, 202717¢17.0%+4.0 pts$720.1%
December 31, 20264¢4.1%+0.8 pts$64.9K99.9%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 22¢ (bid 6¢ / ask 28¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$64.9K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of at least two NATO member states between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between the military forces of at least two NATO member states. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: For the purposes of this market, coast guard services or equivalent forces will be considered part of a country’s military only if they are officially designated as military forces under that country’s law or command structure; purely civilian or law-enforcement maritime agencies will not be considered military forces. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 47 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Unknown-IntegerNo47$39
Belated-GlueYes43$7
Original-Anything-PetitionYes22$4
Athletic-CutletNo22$18
Exemplary-DecisionmakingYes5$1
Turbulent-NationNo3$3
Kaleidoscopic-HemisphereYes2$0

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $1.0K at 96.7%SELL No — $511 at 96.0%SELL No — $421 at 96.4%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 23, 10:41 AM ETNoBUY96.4%$5
Oct 23, 07:30 AM ETNoSELL95.0%$10
Oct 23, 06:35 AM ETNoSELL95.0%$1
Oct 23, 06:35 AM ETNoSELL96.4%$421
Oct 23, 02:25 AM ETNoBUY96.4%$61
Oct 22, 02:27 PM ETNoBUY94.0%$2
Oct 22, 01:44 PM ETNoSELL94.7%$29
Oct 22, 01:41 PM ETYesBUY4.8%$25
Oct 20, 06:21 PM ETNoBUY92.0%$20
Oct 20, 04:17 PM ETNoSELL96.1%$93

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will NATO countries clash with each other by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 17.0%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 4.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-nato-countries-clash-with-each-other-before-2027?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will NATO countries clash with each other by...??

$64.9K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Will NATO countries clash with each other by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Will NATO countries clash with each other by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, 2027, priced at 17.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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