As of October 24, 2026, 07:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 17.0% in Will NATO countries clash with each other by...? — $64.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 17.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +4.0 pts; past week: -2.5 pts.
Since October 09, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 13.0% and 18.5%. It opened at 16.5% and last traded at 17.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 17.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 18.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 18.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 13.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 16.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 13.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 17.0% |
December 31, 2027 is favored at 17.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 17¢ | 17.0% | +4.0 pts | $72 | 0.1% |
| December 31, 2026 | 4¢ | 4.1% | +0.8 pts | $64.9K | 99.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 22¢ (bid 6¢ / ask 28¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$64.9K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of at least two NATO member states between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between the military forces of at least two NATO member states. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: For the purposes of this market, coast guard services or equivalent forces will be considered part of a country’s military only if they are officially designated as military forces under that country’s law or command structure; purely civilian or law-enforcement maritime agencies will not be considered military forces. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 47 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unknown-Integer | No | 47 | $39 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 43 | $7 |
| Original-Anything-Petition | Yes | 22 | $4 |
| Athletic-Cutlet | No | 22 | $18 |
| Exemplary-Decisionmaking | Yes | 5 | $1 |
| Turbulent-Nation | No | 3 | $3 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Hemisphere | Yes | 2 | $0 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 10:41 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.4% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 07:30 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 06:35 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 06:35 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.4% | $421 |
| Oct 23, 02:25 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.4% | $61 |
| Oct 22, 02:27 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 01:44 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.7% | $29 |
| Oct 22, 01:41 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.8% | $25 |
| Oct 20, 06:21 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $20 |
| Oct 20, 04:17 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.1% | $93 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 17.0%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 4.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-nato-countries-clash-with-each-other-before-2027?via=bro
$64.9K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2027, priced at 17.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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