As of October 24, 2026, 09:23 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 58.0% in 1 million American kids get SpaceX shares by December 31, 2027? — $114 traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 58.0%.
Since October 23, 2026, No has traded between 58.0% and 58.0%. It opened at 58.0% and last traded at 58.0%.
No is favored at 58.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 58¢ | 58.0% | — | $114 | 100.0% |
| Yes | 42¢ | 42.0% | — | $114 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 14¢ (bid 35¢ / ask 49¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$114 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
On October 19, 2026, Elon Musk announced that next year he would give one of his SpaceX shares to every child in America. (see: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/19/elon-musk-spacex-shares-giveaway-kids.html) This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one million children in the United States have received at least one share of SpaceX stock from Elon Musk by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "child" is any individual who is under 18 years of age and resides in the United States on the date the share is received. A child who turns 18 after receiving a share will continue to count. A child will be considered to have "received" a share once at least one whole share has been transferred to and is held by or for the benefit of that child, including in a brokerage account, custodial account (such as a UTMA/UGMA account), or trust in the child's name or for the child's benefit. Announcements, pledges, registrations, sign-ups, or allocations of shares that have not yet been transferred will not qualify. Fractional shares, tokenized shares, or other synthetic exposure to SpaceX will not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 52 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Euphoric-Flan | Yes | 52 | $22 |
| Flimsy-Hydrolysis | No | 44 | $26 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 39 | $17 |
| Purple-Warlock | No | 20 | $12 |
| Putrid-Gorilla | Yes | 10 | $4 |
| Rotten-Atheist | No | 10 | $6 |
| Buoyant-Molasses | No | 10 | $6 |
| Wobbly-Chain | No | 10 | $6 |
| Agonizing-Discretion | No | 8 | $4 |
| Rotating-Sound | Yes | 6 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 05:40 PM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 04:20 PM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $13 |
| Oct 23, 03:28 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 51.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 02:49 PM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 02:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 50.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 12:28 AM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 04:53 AM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $6 |
| Oct 21, 06:48 PM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 06:48 PM ET | No | BUY | 64.0% | $28 |
| Oct 21, 05:26 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 58.0%. Next is Yes at 42.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/1-million-american-kids-get-spacex-shares-by-december-31-2027?via=bro
$114 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 58.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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