As of October 24, 2026, 07:44 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 98.6% in 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? — $833.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 98.6%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.4 pts; past month: +0.2 pts.
Since December 08, 2025, No has traded between 92.8% and 99.4%. It opened at 97.5% and last traded at 98.6%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 99.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 99.1% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 98.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 98.8% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 98.6% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.6% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 98.6% |
No is favored at 98.6%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 99¢ | 98.6% | — | $833.2K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 1¢ | 1.4% | — | $833.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 2¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$833.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolution source: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 29,583 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x8931aa50… | No | 29,583 | $29.2K |
| Brilliant-Excursion | Yes | 16,000 | $224 |
| Several-Model | Yes | 14,666 | $205 |
| Compassionate-Kneejerk | No | 14,096 | $13.9K |
| Vague-Venison | No | 11,480 | $11.3K |
| Insidious-Mushroom | Yes | 10,000 | $140 |
| Crazy-Azimuth-Recovery | Yes | 7,692 | $108 |
| 0xfa394a59… | Yes | 6,236 | $87 |
| Radiant-Shorts | Yes | 5,009 | $70 |
| Legal-Patriot | Yes | 4,500 | $63 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 12:05 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.5% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 09:40 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.7% | $25 |
| Oct 16, 08:55 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.7% | $0 |
| Oct 15, 11:58 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.5% | $19 |
| Oct 15, 11:41 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.5% | $30 |
| Oct 15, 11:41 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.4% | $20 |
| Oct 15, 11:56 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.6% | $1 |
| Oct 15, 09:25 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.6% | $54 |
| Oct 13, 02:26 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.6% | $23 |
| Oct 11, 08:18 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.6% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 98.6%. Next is Yes at 1.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/10pt0-or-above-earthquake-before-2027?via=bro
$833.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef.
No, priced at 98.6% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.