As of October 24, 2026, 08:06 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Bernard Arnault at 46.1% in 3rd richest person on December 31? — $28.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Bernard Arnault, is priced at 46.1%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +32.1 pts; past month: +32.2 pts.
Since January 31, 2026, Bernard Arnault has traded between 0.1% and 45.3%. It opened at 14.5% and last traded at 44.4%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 13.9% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 13.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 13.8% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 13.9% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 13.9% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 45.3% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 44.4% |
Bernard Arnault is favored at 46.1%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Arnault | 46¢ | 46.1% | +0.5 pts | $346 | 1.2% |
| Jensen Huang | 37¢ | 37.4% | +23.9 pts | $1.2K | 4.2% |
| Steve Ballmer | 37¢ | 37.4% | +6.7 pts | $13.9K | 49.1% |
| Elon Musk | 36¢ | 35.8% | +9.5 pts | $619 | 2.2% |
| Warren Buffett | 31¢ | 31.4% | -12.6 pts | $1.4K | 5.0% |
| Larry Ellison | 21¢ | 20.7% | -19.5 pts | $924 | 3.3% |
| Jeff Bezos | 20¢ | 20.2% | -21.8 pts | $657 | 2.3% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | 17¢ | 16.9% | -25.7 pts | $1.1K | 3.9% |
| Sergey Brin | 10¢ | 10.0% | — | $683 | 2.4% |
| Larry Page | 8¢ | 8.4% | +0.4 pts | $7.1K | 25.3% |
| Michael Dell | 0¢ | 0.4% | +0.1 pts | $292 | 1.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 90¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 91¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$28.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 37 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 02, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #3 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 654 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 654 | $353 |
| Snarling-Inspection-External | Yes | 300 | $138 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 166 | $77 |
| 0xed35426b… | Yes | 60 | $28 |
| Pleasing-Elm | Yes | 47 | $22 |
| Honest-Basil | Yes | 13 | $6 |
| Friendly-Mastoid | Yes | 11 | $5 |
| Radiant-Nonbeliever | Yes | 10 | $5 |
| Fruitful-Heroine | Yes | 9 | $4 |
| Mortified-Wetland | Yes | 9 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 12:38 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.3% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 12:09 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.3% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 05:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.3% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 08:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.1% | $1 |
| Oct 18, 07:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.0% | $0 |
| Oct 18, 09:27 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.9% | $12 |
| Oct 06, 03:51 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.1% | $0 |
| Oct 06, 02:34 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 05, 04:42 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 05, 02:29 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.7% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Bernard Arnault at 46.1%. Next is Jensen Huang at 37.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/3rd-richest-person-on-december-31?via=bro
$28.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 37 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 02, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Bernard Arnault, priced at 46.1% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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