As of October 24, 2026, 09:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price OpenAI at 50.5% in Anthropic vs OpenAI - greater valuation growth October 2026 — $313 traded so far.
The leading outcome, OpenAI, is priced at 50.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -2.0 pts.
Since October 07, 2026, OpenAI has traded between 23.5% and 54.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 50.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 48.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 48.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 49.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 54.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 50.5% |
OpenAI is favored at 50.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 50¢ | 50.5% | — | $313 | 100.0% |
| Anthropic | 50¢ | 49.5% | — | $313 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 97¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$313 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger percentage increase in private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), from the last trading day prior to the specified month (starting valuation) to last trading day of the specified month (ending valuation). NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified month, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2026-09-30&view=change&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757%2Ccompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 53 shares of OpenAI.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cloudy-Quiver | OpenAI | 53 | $27 |
| Gripping-Abolishment | Anthropic | 40 | $20 |
| Belated-Glue | Anthropic | 8 | $4 |
| Known-Use | Anthropic | 5 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 09:44 AM ET | OpenAI | BUY | 94.0% | $50 |
| Oct 12, 12:35 AM ET | OpenAI | SELL | 24.2% | $5 |
| Oct 10, 04:24 AM ET | OpenAI | BUY | 21.0% | $4 |
| Oct 10, 03:51 AM ET | OpenAI | SELL | 34.0% | $7 |
| Oct 10, 03:38 AM ET | OpenAI | BUY | 33.0% | $7 |
| Oct 10, 03:36 AM ET | OpenAI | BUY | 33.0% | $7 |
| Oct 09, 02:05 PM ET | Anthropic | BUY | 52.0% | $10 |
| Oct 09, 02:02 PM ET | Anthropic | BUY | 52.0% | $10 |
| Oct 09, 02:27 AM ET | OpenAI | SELL | 33.0% | $7 |
| Oct 08, 12:33 PM ET | Anthropic | BUY | 63.0% | $25 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is OpenAI at 50.5%. Next is Anthropic at 49.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-vs-openai-greater-valuation-growth-october-2026?via=bro
$313 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2026-09-30&view=change&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757%2Ccompany-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca.
OpenAI, priced at 50.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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