As of October 24, 2026, 08:59 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 76.0% in António Guterres out by December 31? — $2.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 76.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.0 pts; past week: -3.5 pts; past month: -1.5 pts.
Since April 21, 2026, No has traded between 46.5% and 84.0%. It opened at 56.0% and last traded at 72.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 72.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 72.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 72.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 72.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 76.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 72.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 72.0% |
No is favored at 76.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 76¢ | 76.0% | +4.0 pts | $2.4K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 24¢ | 24.0% | -4.0 pts | $2.4K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 22¢ (bid 13¢ / ask 35¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.4K has been traded on this event in total, $50 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 543 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Several-Kimono | Yes | 543 | $130 |
| Raw-Steam | No | 388 | $295 |
| Unfit-Hardboard | No | 286 | $218 |
| Runny-Pompom | Yes | 101 | $24 |
| Candid-Convection | Yes | 62 | $15 |
| Bouncy-Friction | No | 62 | $48 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 46 | $11 |
| Imaginative-Shoes | Yes | 42 | $10 |
| Soft-Leap | Yes | 36 | $9 |
| Bitter-Cartoon | No | 25 | $19 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 08:03 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 08:03 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 24.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:02 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 24.0% | $6 |
| Sep 25, 06:34 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 34.0% | $1 |
| Sep 17, 03:52 PM ET | No | BUY | 72.0% | $7 |
| Sep 17, 08:22 AM ET | No | BUY | 61.0% | $3 |
| Sep 16, 05:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 52.0% | $3 |
| Sep 16, 05:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 48.2% | $6 |
| Sep 13, 03:27 PM ET | No | BUY | 47.0% | $1 |
| Sep 13, 01:54 PM ET | No | BUY | 46.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 76.0%. Next is Yes at 24.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/antnio-guterres-out-by-december-31?via=bro
$2.4K in total volume, with $50 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 76.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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