Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Bank of Mexico Decision in December?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No change at 80.5% in Bank of Mexico Decision in December? — $4.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $142.
Leading outcome
No change
80%
A 80.5% price implies roughly a 80-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −2.5 pts7D −0.5 pts
No change80.5%
25 bps decrease15.5%
Bid
80¢
Ask
81¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 15, 2026: 69.5% – 87.0% · Opened at 69.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Bank of Mexico Decision in December?
Category
Mexico, Banxico, Economy, Finance, Recurring, Global Rates, Macro Indicators
Scheduled end
December 17, 2026, 06:59 PM ET
Total volume
$4.5K
Volume (24h)
$142
Liquidity
$7.1K
Markets
5
Leading outcome
No change — 80.5%
Resolution source
https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No change, is priced at 80.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.5 pts; past week: -0.5 pts.

Since October 15, 2026, No change has traded between 69.5% and 87.0%. It opened at 69.5% and last traded at 80.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202680.0%
Oct 18, 202680.5%
Oct 19, 202680.5%
Oct 20, 202680.5%
Oct 22, 202687.0%
Oct 23, 202683.0%
Oct 24, 202680.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No change is favored at 80.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No change80¢80.5%-2.5 pts$2.1K47.0%
25 bps decrease16¢15.5%+1.0 pts$1.1K25.6%
25 bps increase3¢3.1%+0.6 pts$54612.2%
50+ bps decrease3¢2.9%+0.8 pts$3547.9%
50+ bps increase0¢0.5%—$3247.2%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 80¢ / ask 81¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$4.5K has been traded on this event in total, $142 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 17, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 17, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 290 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No290$57
Belated-GlueNo224$44
Agitated-MobsterYes174$140
Unnatural-SailboatYes114$92
Each-SummaryYes109$87
Evil-RowYes75$60
Prickly-EyrieYes63$51
Amazing-Antelope-ShakedownYes40$32
Brave-VegetationYes20$16
Jealous-VitroYes20$16

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $100 at 87.7%BUY No — $94 at 94.0%BUY No — $33 at 99.3%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 12:16 PM ETNoBUY17.0%$3
Oct 24, 12:16 PM ETNoBUY87.0%$17
Oct 24, 12:16 PM ETNoBUY99.5%$20
Oct 24, 12:01 PM ETNoSELL16.0%$1
Oct 24, 12:01 PM ETYesBUY84.0%$8
Oct 24, 12:01 PM ETYesBUY84.0%$8
Oct 24, 08:06 AM ETNoBUY87.0%$1
Oct 23, 01:51 PM ETYesBUY14.0%$14
Oct 23, 12:35 PM ETYesBUY2.0%$0
Oct 23, 12:29 PM ETYesSELL12.0%$0

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Bank of Mexico Decision in December??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No change at 80.5%. Next is 25 bps decrease at 15.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-mexico-decision-in-december-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Bank of Mexico Decision in December??

$4.5K in total volume, with $142 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.

When does Bank of Mexico Decision in December? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 17, 2026, 06:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp.

What is the most likely outcome of Bank of Mexico Decision in December?, according to Polymarket traders?

No change, priced at 80.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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