As of October 24, 2026, 08:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 6.1 or more at 99.6% in What will the biggest earthquake be on October 24, 2026? — $3.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 6.1 or more, is priced at 99.6%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +76.1 pts.
Since October 22, 2026, 6.1 or more has traded between 23.5% and 99.6%. It opened at 23.5% and last traded at 99.6%.
6.1 or more is favored at 99.6%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.1 or more | 100¢ | 99.6% | +76.1 pts | $906 | 25.9% |
| Under 5.3 | 1¢ | 1.1% | -15.9 pts | $645 | 18.4% |
| 5.3 to 5.4 | 0¢ | 0.2% | -15.8 pts | $380 | 10.9% |
| 5.5 to 5.6 | 0¢ | 0.2% | -16.2 pts | $463 | 13.2% |
| 5.7 to 5.8 | 0¢ | 0.2% | -14.8 pts | $564 | 16.1% |
| 5.9 to 6.0 | 0¢ | 0.2% | -11.8 pts | $538 | 15.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 99¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.5K has been traded on this event in total, $3.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 02:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 24, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 24, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 25, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 24, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 25, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.
Resolution source: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 413 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 413 | $2 |
| Roasted-Raft | Yes | 308 | $306 |
| Intelligent-Blog-Hosiery | Yes | 249 | $248 |
| Old-Fashioned-Handholding-Viscose | No | 100 | $0 |
| Dazzling-Metal | Yes | 73 | $73 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 60 | $0 |
| 0x3ff744e9… | Yes | 50 | $50 |
| Ajar-Snarl | Yes | 49 | $49 |
| These-Latency-Perspective | No | 48 | $0 |
| Apt-Antecedent | No | 20 | $0 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:02 PM ET | No | BUY | 0.7% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 03:02 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 07:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 05:24 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.9% | $49 |
| Oct 24, 04:20 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.2% | $34 |
| Oct 24, 01:02 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.7% | $20 |
| Oct 23, 11:50 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 11:50 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 10:40 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 98.7% | $72 |
| Oct 23, 10:40 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.0% | $16 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is 6.1 or more at 99.6%. Next is Under 5.3 at 1.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/biggest-earthquake-2026-10-24?via=bro
$3.5K in total volume, with $3.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 02:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.
6.1 or more, priced at 99.6% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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