As of October 24, 2026, 09:13 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Wetter at 73.5% in California winter 2026-27 wetter or drier? — $769 traded so far.
The leading outcome, Wetter, is priced at 73.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -3.5 pts.
Since October 14, 2026, Wetter has traded between 69.5% and 76.5%. It opened at 72.5% and last traded at 73.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 76.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 73.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 74.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 72.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 72.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 73.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 73.5% |
Wetter is favored at 73.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wetter | 74¢ | 73.5% | — | $769 | 100.0% |
| Drier | 26¢ | 26.5% | — | $769 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 29¢ (bid 12¢ / ask 41¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$769 has been traded on this event in total, $526 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end March 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Drier" if California's statewide total precipitation for December 2026 through February 2027, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), is less than 11.99 inches. If the total is 11.99 inches or more, this market will resolve to "Wetter". 11.99 inches is NCEI's published 1991-2020 average for this period. The threshold is fixed at 11.99 inches, and any change to NCEI's published average will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance, specifically the February 2027 value of the California statewide precipitation series with the timescale set to "3-Month" and the month set to "February", at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/statewide/time-series/4/pcp/3/2. The figure will be the Precipitation figure under California Precipitation found by either hovering over the graph or in the table on the link. The resolution source reports precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 11.54), which is the precision used to resolve this market. This market will resolve on the first value NCEI publishes for December 2026 through February 2027. Any later revision to that value will not be considered. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/statewide/time-series/4/pcp/3/2
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 180 shares of Wetter.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corny-Hyphenation | Wetter | 180 | $132 |
| Belated-Glue | Drier | 63 | $17 |
| Mindless-Welfare-Stucco | Drier | 40 | $11 |
| Vibrant-Minority-Lace | Drier | 40 | $11 |
| Anchored-Leprosy | Wetter | 40 | $29 |
| Agonizing-Discretion | Wetter | 23 | $17 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Drier | 20 | $5 |
| Unequaled-Goal-Eyebrows | Drier | 20 | $5 |
| Empty-Annual | Drier | 20 | $5 |
| Bony-Wingtip-Census | Drier | 20 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:46 PM ET | Drier | BUY | 23.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 06:46 PM ET | Drier | BUY | 22.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 01:30 PM ET | Drier | SELL | 24.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 01:27 PM ET | Wetter | SELL | 76.8% | $71 |
| Oct 24, 01:26 PM ET | Wetter | BUY | 74.0% | $187 |
| Oct 24, 01:26 PM ET | Wetter | BUY | 75.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 01:26 PM ET | Wetter | BUY | 75.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 01:26 PM ET | Wetter | BUY | 76.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 01:26 PM ET | Wetter | BUY | 76.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 01:26 PM ET | Wetter | BUY | 75.0% | $15 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is Wetter at 73.5%. Next is Drier at 26.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/california-winter-2026-27-wetter-or-drier?via=bro
$769 in total volume, with $526 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/statewide/time-series/4/pcp/3/2.
Wetter, priced at 73.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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