As of October 24, 2026, 09:25 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 72.0% in Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026? — $71 traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 72.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +3.0 pts; past month: +17.5 pts.
Since April 21, 2026, No has traded between 23.5% and 90.0%. It opened at 46.5% and last traded at 72.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 75.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 75.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 73.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 72.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 73.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 72.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 72.0% |
No is favored at 72.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 72¢ | 72.0% | — | $71 | 100.0% |
| Yes | 28¢ | 28.0% | — | $71 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 44¢ (bid 6¢ / ask 50¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$71 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption. If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 50 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ill-Violin | No | 50 | $36 |
| 0xf51b1d56… | Yes | 42 | $12 |
| Likely-Midnight | Yes | 8 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 08:48 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.4% | $9 |
| Oct 11, 04:19 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $2 |
| May 19, 03:44 PM ET | No | SELL | 37.0% | $2 |
| May 10, 01:28 AM ET | No | SELL | 6.0% | $0 |
| Apr 29, 03:58 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 35.0% | $2 |
| Apr 22, 12:37 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 94.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 72.0%. Next is Yes at 28.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/etna-eruption-with-vei-2-in-2026?via=bro
$71 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 72.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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