As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 98.4% in FDA approves Retatrutide this year? — $596.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 98.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.1 pts; past week: -0.9 pts; past month: -2.2 pts.
Since January 12, 2026, No has traded between 65.0% and 98.5%. It opened at 65.0% and last traded at 98.4%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 97.4% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.9% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 98.4% |
No is favored at 98.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98¢ | 98.4% | -0.1 pts | $596.2K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 2¢ | 1.7% | +0.1 pts | $596.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 2¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$596.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Retatrutide is a triple agonist hormone/peptide drug developed by Eli Lilly and currently in trial to treat obesity, fatty liver disease, type-2 diabetes, knee osteoarthritis, and more. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants a full or conditional approval for Eli Lilly’s for a drug product whose active ingredient is Eli Lilly’s retatrutide (including any brand name or identifier such as LY3437943) for any use between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,964 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slow-Recollection | Yes | 1,964 | $32 |
| Tasty-Gliding-Grasp | No | 1,730 | $1.7K |
| Antique-Downfall | No | 1,400 | $1.4K |
| Great-Metric | No | 1,042 | $1.0K |
| Oddball-Athletics-Lunge | Yes | 726 | $12 |
| Unlucky-Modem | Yes | 710 | $12 |
| Lavish-Cable | Yes | 589 | $10 |
| Trained-Sniffle | No | 568 | $559 |
| Striking-Saucer | No | 552 | $543 |
| Whispered-Recipe | No | 523 | $514 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 09:56 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.5% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 08:22 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.6% | $16 |
| Oct 15, 03:06 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.6% | $10 |
| Oct 15, 03:05 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.7% | $10 |
| Oct 12, 10:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.3% | $1 |
| Oct 12, 09:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.9% | $1 |
| Oct 12, 08:27 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.8% | $1 |
| Oct 12, 08:27 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.8% | $1 |
| Oct 09, 05:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.1% | $0 |
| Oct 09, 05:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.9% | $39 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 98.4%. Next is Yes at 1.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/fda-approves-retatrutide-this-year?via=bro
$596.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 98.4% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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