As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price <5 at 47.0% in How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026? — $525.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, <5, is priced at 47.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.0 pts; past week: -12.5 pts; past month: +5.0 pts.
Since December 12, 2025, <5 has traded between 6.5% and 75.5%. It opened at 15.5% and last traded at 47.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 60.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 60.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 60.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 55.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 53.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 43.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 47.0% |
<5 is favored at 47.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <5 | 47¢ | 47.0% | +2.0 pts | $104.7K | 19.9% |
| 5-6 | 34¢ | 34.5% | — | $119.9K | 22.8% |
| 7-8 | 1¢ | 1.1% | +0.1 pts | $164.7K | 31.3% |
| 9-10 | 1¢ | 0.6% | +0.1 pts | $66.3K | 12.6% |
| >16 | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $15.3K | 2.9% |
| 11-12 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $11.4K | 2.2% |
| 13-14 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $11.1K | 2.1% |
| 15-16 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $32.1K | 6.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 18¢ (bid 38¢ / ask 56¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$525.4K has been traded on this event in total, $29 of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 6,473 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 6,473 | $3.4K |
| Jam-Packed-Fraud | Yes | 2,009 | $944 |
| Legitimate-Tornado | No | 1,793 | $950 |
| Advanced-Mortgage | Yes | 1,388 | $652 |
| Negligible-Last | Yes | 1,005 | $472 |
| Gorgeous-Embassy | Yes | 804 | $378 |
| Royal-Wren | No | 804 | $426 |
| Suspicious-Stupidity | Yes | 760 | $357 |
| Separate-Eicosanoid | Yes | 721 | $339 |
| Gruesome-Media | Yes | 405 | $191 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 03:48 PM ET | No | SELL | 30.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 03:18 PM ET | No | SELL | 59.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 10:26 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 40.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 10:26 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 58.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 05:15 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.4% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 06:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 64.0% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 06:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 34.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 06:22 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 33.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 06:22 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 65.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 06:16 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 34.0% | $32 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is <5 at 47.0%. Next is 5-6 at 34.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2026?via=bro
$525.4K in total volume, with $29 traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
<5, priced at 47.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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