As of October 24, 2026, 07:52 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 4.50%+ at 98.1% in India Annual Inflation 2026 — $103.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 4.50%+, is priced at 98.1%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.2 pts; past week: +0.1 pts; past month: +9.6 pts.
Since February 09, 2026, 4.50%+ has traded between 11.0% and 98.2%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 98.1%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.9% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.3% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 98.1% |
4.50%+ is favored at 98.1%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.50%+ | 98¢ | 98.1% | +0.2 pts | $27.8K | 26.8% |
| 3.75% to 4.49% | 1¢ | 1.4% | -23.1 pts | $33.4K | 32.2% |
| 3.00% to 3.74% | 1¢ | 1.1% | -1.1 pts | $3.9K | 3.8% |
| <0.75% | 1¢ | 0.8% | -0.1 pts | $3.8K | 3.7% |
| 0.75% to 1.49% | 0¢ | 0.4% | -0.7 pts | $3.2K | 3.1% |
| 2.25% to 2.99% | 0¢ | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | $26.8K | 25.9% |
| 1.50% to 2.24% | 0¢ | 0.2% | -0.3 pts | $4.6K | 4.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 97¢ / ask 99¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$103.6K has been traded on this event in total, $114 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 12, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,813 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wan-Gymnastics | Yes | 3,813 | $3.7K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 2,281 | $43 |
| Known-Use | No | 694 | $13 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 436 | $8 |
| Tangible-Fuel | No | 330 | $6 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 250 | $5 |
| Arctic-Kickoff | Yes | 101 | $99 |
| Dizzy-Lemur | Yes | 85 | $83 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse | No | 80 | $2 |
| Brave-Cornflakes | No | 73 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.2% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 01:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 2.9% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 01:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 03:15 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.6% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 05:28 AM ET | No | SELL | 1.5% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 01:51 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.7% | $8 |
| Oct 20, 01:51 PM ET | No | BUY | 1.1% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 01:51 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.7% | $8 |
| Oct 17, 05:39 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.3% | $0 |
| Oct 13, 05:35 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 94.0% | $11 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 4.50%+ at 98.1%. Next is 3.75% to 4.49% at 1.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/india-annual-inflation-2026?via=bro
$103.6K in total volume, with $114 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 12, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases.
4.50%+, priced at 98.1% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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