As of October 24, 2026, 07:59 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 3.0%+ at 43.9% in Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026 — $45.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 3.0%+, is priced at 43.9%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.3 pts; past week: -8.6 pts; past month: -26.2 pts.
Since June 10, 2026, 3.0%+ has traded between 5.7% and 80.4%. It opened at 49.5% and last traded at 43.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 57.6% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 52.6% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 58.1% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 49.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 43.5% |
3.0%+ is favored at 43.9%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0%+ | 44¢ | 43.9% | +0.3 pts | $22.0K | 47.9% |
| 2.6-2.8% | 19¢ | 19.2% | +0.3 pts | $3.3K | 7.2% |
| 2.8-3.0% | 15¢ | 14.8% | -12.8 pts | $10.3K | 22.4% |
| 2.2-2.4% | 8¢ | 8.1% | +6.8 pts | $1.9K | 4.2% |
| 2.4-2.6% | 4¢ | 3.5% | — | $5.1K | 11.1% |
| <2.0% | 2¢ | 1.8% | — | $1.5K | 3.2% |
| 2.0-2.2% | 2¢ | 1.6% | -0.1 pts | $1.9K | 4.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 43¢ / ask 45¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$45.9K has been traded on this event in total, $119 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026. The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Resolution source: https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,566 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Able-Color | Yes | 1,566 | $687 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,173 | $659 |
| Wry-Friction-Banquette | No | 1,000 | $562 |
| Unique-Primary | Yes | 535 | $235 |
| Unripe-Majority | Yes | 517 | $227 |
| Third-Odyssey | No | 446 | $251 |
| Rubbery-Churn | No | 324 | $182 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 279 | $122 |
| Generous-Destination | No | 247 | $139 |
| Known-Use | No | 182 | $102 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 11:15 PM ET | No | BUY | 79.3% | $11 |
| Oct 23, 10:38 PM ET | No | BUY | 79.3% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 10:28 PM ET | No | BUY | 79.3% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 10:16 PM ET | No | BUY | 73.5% | $15 |
| Oct 23, 08:01 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 42.5% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 08:01 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 42.6% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 03:55 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 42.5% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 09:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.3% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 08:00 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 42.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 07:48 AM ET | No | SELL | 55.4% | $11 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 3.0%+ at 43.9%. Next is 2.6-2.8% at 19.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/japan-10y-bond-yield-end-of-2026?via=bro
$45.9K in total volume, with $119 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm.
3.0%+, priced at 43.9% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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