As of October 24, 2026, 07:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 2.0-2.4% at 69.8% in Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026 — $79.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 2.0-2.4%, is priced at 69.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.4 pts; past week: +67.2 pts; past month: +36.3 pts.
Since June 18, 2026, 2.0-2.4% has traded between 2.7% and 68.1%. It opened at 45.5% and last traded at 67.4%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 20.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 2.9% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 2.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 2.8% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 68.1% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 67.4% |
2.0-2.4% is favored at 69.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0-2.4% | 70¢ | 69.8% | +2.4 pts | $27.3K | 34.2% |
| ≤1.9% | 27¢ | 27.3% | -1.2 pts | $34.3K | 43.0% |
| 2.5-2.9% | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $10.2K | 12.8% |
| 3.0-3.4% | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $2.6K | 3.3% |
| 3.5-3.9% | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $3.0K | 3.7% |
| 4.0%+ | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $2.4K | 3.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 69¢ / ask 70¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$79.8K has been traded on this event in total, $80 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ). The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Resolution source: https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,278 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noxious-Fibrosis-Coaster | Yes | 4,278 | $3.0K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 3,820 | $1.2K |
| Wan-Gymnastics | Yes | 1,128 | $787 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse | No | 660 | $199 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 539 | $163 |
| Unripe-Majority | Yes | 372 | $260 |
| Velvety-Burn | No | 361 | $109 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 270 | $188 |
| Careful-Bunch | No | 220 | $67 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 202 | $61 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:42 AM ET | No | BUY | 69.9% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 12:58 AM ET | No | SELL | 31.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 12:57 AM ET | No | SELL | 31.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 12:56 AM ET | No | SELL | 31.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 02:13 PM ET | No | BUY | 35.8% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 02:12 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 05:02 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 64.1% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 05:01 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 68.9% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 04:57 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 68.0% | $54 |
| Oct 23, 04:57 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 69.0% | $1.0K |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 2.0-2.4% at 69.8%. Next is ≤1.9% at 27.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/japan-core-cpi-yoy-in-2026-20260617224131789?via=bro
$79.8K in total volume, with $80 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen.
2.0-2.4%, priced at 69.8% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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