Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:23 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 99.7% in Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31? — $5.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $37.
Leading outcome
No
100%
A 99.7% price implies roughly a 100-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.1 pts7D −0.1 pts30D −0.5 pts
No99.7%
Yes0.3%
Bid
0¢
Ask
0¢
Spread
0¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since August 19, 2026: 94.8% – 99.7% · Opened at 95.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31?
Category
Music, Russia, Culture, kanye west
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$5.5K
Volume (24h)
$37
Liquidity
$1.4K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 99.7%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 99.7%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past week: -0.1 pts; past month: -0.5 pts.

Since August 19, 2026, No has traded between 94.8% and 99.7%. It opened at 95.0% and last traded at 99.7%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202699.7%
Oct 16, 202699.7%
Oct 18, 202699.7%
Oct 19, 202699.7%
Oct 20, 202699.7%
Oct 23, 202699.6%
Oct 24, 202699.7%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 99.7%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No100¢99.7%+0.1 pts$5.5K100.0%
Yes0¢0.3%-0.1 pts$5.5K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 0¢ / ask 0¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$5.5K has been traded on this event in total, $37 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, is arrested in Russia between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Ye is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in Russia, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) Ye is criminally booked or processed; (ii) Ye is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) Ye is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) Ye is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Ye being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,414 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Sniveling-ProduceNo1,414$1.4K
voltzbelieverYes1,000$3
Straight-WrinkleYes480$1
Pessimistic-OmegaNo182$181
Dazzling-GlandYes155$0
Eager-ResearchYes150$0
Quizzical-RevitalizationNo110$110
Jealous-SaffronYes100$0
Lumpy-PlateNo100$100
Real-ResearchYes91$0

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $95 at 95.1%BUY No — $90 at 99.5%BUY No — $49 at 97.7%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 02:23 PM ETNoBUY99.7%$37
Oct 23, 07:04 PM ETYesSELL0.3%$0
Oct 20, 03:07 PM ETNoSELL99.5%$5
Oct 16, 03:17 AM ETYesSELL0.2%$0
Oct 15, 06:47 PM ETYesSELL0.3%$1
Sep 30, 01:38 PM ETNoSELL99.0%$2
Sep 30, 01:38 PM ETYesSELL0.4%$3
Sep 29, 03:38 PM ETNoBUY99.5%$90
Sep 29, 02:00 PM ETNoBUY99.5%$1
Sep 29, 08:24 AM ETYesBUY1.6%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 99.7%. Next is Yes at 0.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/kanye-west-arrested-in-russia-by-october-31?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31??

$5.5K in total volume, with $37 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 99.7% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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