As of October 24, 2026, 09:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 25°C at 44.0% in Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 26? — $293 traded so far.
25°C is favored at 44.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25°C | 44¢ | 44.0% | — | $46 | 15.8% |
| 26°C | 35¢ | 35.0% | — | $6 | 2.0% |
| 27°C | 24¢ | 24.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| 23°C | 22¢ | 22.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| 24°C | 22¢ | 22.5% | — | $11 | 3.7% |
| 22°C | 21¢ | 21.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| 20°C or below | 5¢ | 5.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| 21°C | 4¢ | 4.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| 28°C | 4¢ | 4.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| 29°C | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $230 | 78.4% |
| 30°C or higher | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 30¢ (bid 29¢ / ask 59¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$293 has been traded on this event in total, $293 of it in the last 24 hours, across 11 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 08:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions published after the Hong Kong Observatory's initial publication of data for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. That initial publication is the revisions cutoff. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 17 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brilliant-Differential | Yes | 17 | $7 |
| Deafening-Cyclamen-Sick | No | 17 | $9 |
| Nervous-Dresser | Yes | 7 | $3 |
| Awesome-Checkbook-Hose | No | 7 | $4 |
| Starry-Wealth-Albatross | No | 6 | $3 |
| Abandoned-Pipe | Yes | 5 | $2 |
| Hideous-Thermals | Yes | 1 | $0 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 66.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 12:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 46.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 12:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 12:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 10:41 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 09:19 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 09:18 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.7% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 09:18 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 09:18 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.7% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 09:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.7% | $40 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is 25°C at 44.0%. Next is 26°C at 35.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/lowest-temperature-in-hong-kong-on-october-26-2026?via=bro
$293 in total volume, with $293 traded in the last 24 hours across 11 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 08:00 AM ET.
25°C, priced at 44.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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