Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 26?

As of October 24, 2026, 09:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 25°C at 44.0% in Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 26? — $293 traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $293.
Leading outcome
25°C
44%
A 44.0% price implies roughly a 44-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
25°C44.0%
26°C35.0%
Bid
29¢
Ask
59¢
Spread
30¢
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Market facts

Event data
Event
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 26?
Category
Weather, Recurring, Hide From New, Daily Temperature, Hong Kong, Lowest temperature
Scheduled end
October 26, 2026, 08:00 AM ET
Total volume
$293
Volume (24h)
$293
Liquidity
$13.7K
Markets
11
Leading outcome
25°C — 44.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

25°C is favored at 44.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
25°C44¢44.0%—$4615.8%
26°C35¢35.0%—$62.0%
27°C24¢24.5%—$00.0%
23°C22¢22.5%—$00.0%
24°C22¢22.5%—$113.7%
22°C21¢21.0%—$00.0%
20°C or below5¢5.0%—$00.0%
21°C4¢4.5%—$00.0%
28°C4¢4.5%—$00.0%
29°C1¢1.1%—$23078.4%
30°C or higher1¢0.5%—$00.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 30¢ (bid 29¢ / ask 59¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$293 has been traded on this event in total, $293 of it in the last 24 hours, across 11 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 08:00 AM ET.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions published after the Hong Kong Observatory's initial publication of data for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. That initial publication is the revisions cutoff. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 17 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Brilliant-DifferentialYes17$7
Deafening-Cyclamen-SickNo17$9
Nervous-DresserYes7$3
Awesome-Checkbook-HoseNo7$4
Starry-Wealth-AlbatrossNo6$3
Abandoned-PipeYes5$2
Hideous-ThermalsYes1$0

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $40 at 99.7%BUY No — $20 at 99.8%BUY No — $20 at 99.8%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 03:44 PM ETNoBUY66.0%$4
Oct 24, 12:06 PM ETYesBUY46.0%$3
Oct 24, 12:06 PM ETYesBUY45.0%$8
Oct 24, 12:06 PM ETYesBUY45.0%$8
Oct 24, 10:41 AM ETNoBUY99.8%$10
Oct 24, 09:19 AM ETNoBUY99.8%$20
Oct 24, 09:18 AM ETNoBUY99.7%$20
Oct 24, 09:18 AM ETNoBUY99.8%$20
Oct 24, 09:18 AM ETNoBUY99.7%$20
Oct 24, 09:17 AM ETNoBUY99.7%$40

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 26??

As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is 25°C at 44.0%. Next is 26°C at 35.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/lowest-temperature-in-hong-kong-on-october-26-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 26??

$293 in total volume, with $293 traded in the last 24 hours across 11 markets.

When does Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 26? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 08:00 AM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 26?, according to Polymarket traders?

25°C, priced at 44.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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