As of October 24, 2026, 09:28 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 4°C at 50.0% in Lowest temperature in Milan on October 25? — $30 traded so far.
The leading outcome, 4°C, is priced at 50.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +13.0 pts.
Since October 23, 2026, 4°C has traded between 37.0% and 50.0%. It opened at 37.0% and last traded at 50.0%.
4°C is favored at 50.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4°C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +13.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| 5°C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +12.5 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| 6°C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +12.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| 7°C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +12.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| 8°C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +12.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| 3°C | 50¢ | 49.5% | +12.5 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| 9°C | 48¢ | 48.5% | +11.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| 2°C | 46¢ | 46.0% | +21.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| 1°C or below | 46¢ | 45.5% | +20.5 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| 10°C | 0¢ | 0.1% | -37.5 pts | $15 | 50.0% |
| 11°C or higher | 0¢ | 0.1% | -25.4 pts | $15 | 50.0% |
$30 has been traded on this event in total, $30 of it in the last 24 hours, across 11 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 08:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature reported at Malpensa Intl Airport (LIMC) on 25 Oct '26. The qualifying value is the lowest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for Malpensa Intl Airport (LIMC) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Every other report is routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label. For How to Read the METAR Report, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Weather/How+to+Read+the+METAR+Report.pdf The hourly temperature remark is the group beginning with the letter T followed by exactly eight digits. After the T, one digit for sign (0 positive, 1 negative) and three for tenths of a degree Celsius give the temperature; the following four are the dew point and are not used. T01390133 is 13.9°C; T10171022 is −1.7°C. If a routine observation does not carry the hourly temperature remark, the temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that observation, in whole degrees Celsius as reported. It appears as temperature and dew point separated by a slash, with M marking a negative value: 18/12 is 18°C; M11/M17 is −11°C. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=LIMC&format=raw&date=2026-10-26T02:00:00Z&hours=30
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 06:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $15 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:25 PM ET, the leading outcome is 4°C at 50.0%. Next is 5°C at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/lowest-temperature-in-milan-on-october-25-2026?via=bro
$30 in total volume, with $30 traded in the last 24 hours across 11 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 08:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=LIMC&format=raw&date=2026-10-26T02:00:00Z&hours=30.
4°C, priced at 50.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:25 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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