Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Lowest temperature in San Francisco on October 24?

As of October 24, 2026, 09:22 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 52-53°F at 94.0% in Lowest temperature in San Francisco on October 24? — $135 traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $135.
Leading outcome
52-53°F
94%
A 94.0% price implies roughly a 94-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +56.0 pts
52-53°F94.0%
43°F or below45.0%
Bid
88¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
12¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 23, 2026: 38.0% – 51.4% · Opened at 38.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on October 24?
Category
Weather, Recurring, Hide From New, Daily Temperature, San Fransisco, Lowest temperature
Scheduled end
October 24, 2026, 08:00 AM ET
Total volume
$135
Volume (24h)
$135
Liquidity
$1.6K
Markets
11
Leading outcome
52-53°F — 94.0%
Resolution source
https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSFO&format=raw&date=2026-10-25T10:00:00Z&hours=30

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 52-53°F, is priced at 94.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +56.0 pts.

Since October 23, 2026, 52-53°F has traded between 38.0% and 51.4%. It opened at 38.0% and last traded at 51.4%.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

52-53°F is favored at 94.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
52-53°F94¢94.0%+56.0 pts$00.0%
43°F or below45¢45.0%-4.0 pts$00.0%
50-51°F24¢24.0%-14.0 pts$3525.9%
44-45°F22¢21.5%-16.5 pts$00.0%
46-47°F22¢21.5%-16.5 pts$00.0%
48-49°F22¢21.5%-16.5 pts$00.0%
54-55°F0¢0.1%-38.0 pts$4029.6%
56-57°F0¢0.1%-38.0 pts$1511.1%
58-59°F0¢0.1%-38.0 pts$1511.1%
60-61°F0¢0.1%-38.0 pts$1511.1%
62°F or higher0¢0.1%-25.4 pts$1511.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 12¢ (bid 88¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$135 has been traded on this event in total, $135 of it in the last 24 hours, across 11 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 24, 2026, 08:00 AM ET.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature reported at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) on 24 Oct '26. The qualifying value is the lowest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Every other report is routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label. For How to Read the METAR Report, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Weather/How+to+Read+the+METAR+Report.pdf The hourly temperature remark is the group beginning with the letter T followed by exactly eight digits. After the T, one digit for sign (0 positive, 1 negative) and three for tenths of a degree Celsius give the temperature; the following four are the dew point and are not used. T01390133 is 13.9°C; T10171022 is −1.7°C. If a routine observation does not carry the hourly temperature remark, the temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that observation, in whole degrees Celsius as reported. It appears as temperature and dew point separated by a slash, with M marking a negative value: 18/12 is 18°C; M11/M17 is −11°C. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSFO&format=raw&date=2026-10-25T10:00:00Z&hours=30

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $34 at 98.3%BUY No — $25 at 99.9%BUY No — $15 at 99.9%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 11:46 AM ETNoBUY98.3%$34
Oct 24, 07:59 AM ETNoBUY99.9%$25
Oct 24, 07:58 AM ETNoBUY99.0%$10
Oct 24, 07:54 AM ETNoBUY98.0%$5
Oct 24, 05:24 AM ETNoBUY99.9%$15

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Lowest temperature in San Francisco on October 24??

As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is 52-53°F at 94.0%. Next is 43°F or below at 45.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/lowest-temperature-in-san-francisco-on-october-24-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Lowest temperature in San Francisco on October 24??

$135 in total volume, with $135 traded in the last 24 hours across 11 markets.

When does Lowest temperature in San Francisco on October 24? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 24, 2026, 08:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSFO&format=raw&date=2026-10-25T10:00:00Z&hours=30.

What is the most likely outcome of Lowest temperature in San Francisco on October 24?, according to Polymarket traders?

52-53°F, priced at 94.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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