As of October 24, 2026, 09:20 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 54.0% in Madison Beer and Justin Herbert confirmed married by December 31? — $287 traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 54.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +25.5 pts; past month: +20.0 pts.
Since August 05, 2026, No has traded between 50.5% and 85.5%. It opened at 60.0% and last traded at 51.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 80.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 80.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 79.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 53.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 51.5% |
No is favored at 54.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 54¢ | 54.0% | -0.5 pts | $287 | 100.0% |
| Yes | 46¢ | 46.0% | +0.5 pts | $287 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 78¢ (bid 7¢ / ask 85¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$287 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Madison Beer and Justin Herbert's marriage is confirmed to have taken place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only confirmation within this market's timeframe will qualify. No confirmation that occurs after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will be considered, even if the marriage itself took place within the market's timeframe. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 67 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required-Rocker | No | 67 | $36 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 20 | $9 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 20 | $9 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 20 | $9 |
| Shabby-Personnel-Lift | Yes | 5 | $2 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 5 | $2 |
| Lasting-Cowboy | No | 2 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 07:04 AM ET | No | SELL | 82.0% | $0 |
| Oct 15, 06:31 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 17.0% | $3 |
| Oct 15, 02:29 AM ET | No | BUY | 81.0% | $16 |
| Oct 15, 02:29 AM ET | No | BUY | 81.0% | $16 |
| Oct 13, 11:10 PM ET | No | SELL | 79.0% | $1 |
| Oct 13, 05:34 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 20.0% | $1 |
| Oct 13, 05:34 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 21.0% | $1 |
| Oct 13, 05:34 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 22.0% | $4 |
| Oct 13, 05:33 PM ET | No | BUY | 77.0% | $12 |
| Oct 13, 05:33 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 23.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 54.0%. Next is Yes at 46.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/madison-beer-and-justin-herbert-confirmed-married-by-december-31-20260804005421104?via=bro
$287 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 54.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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