As of October 24, 2026, 08:13 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 96.5% in Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? — $20.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 96.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.2 pts; past week: -0.7 pts; past month: +0.6 pts.
Since April 04, 2026, No has traded between 63.0% and 97.8%. It opened at 75.5% and last traded at 96.6%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 95.8% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 95.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 95.8% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 96.6% |
No is favored at 96.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 96¢ | 96.5% | -0.2 pts | $20.6K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 4¢ | 3.5% | +0.2 pts | $20.6K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$20.6K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end January 07, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601). For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point. If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolution source: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,815 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slushy-Gamebird | Yes | 1,815 | $64 |
| Buoyant-Ice | No | 1,305 | $1.3K |
| Crushing-Spree | No | 1,106 | $1.1K |
| Stained-Cynic | No | 900 | $868 |
| Opulent-Communicant | No | 857 | $826 |
| 0x455c9361… | Yes | 677 | $24 |
| Discrete-Flung | Yes | 505 | $18 |
| Envious-Grandmom-Mixture | Yes | 272 | $10 |
| Essential-Diarist | Yes | 200 | $7 |
| Unfinished-Glimpse | Yes | 136 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 08:32 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.3% | $0 |
| Oct 13, 03:28 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.1% | $1 |
| Oct 12, 11:44 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.1% | $3 |
| Oct 11, 06:42 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.0% | $20 |
| Oct 08, 09:56 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.7% | $1 |
| Oct 01, 12:03 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.6% | $10 |
| Sep 17, 11:24 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.3% | $1 |
| Sep 16, 08:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.9% | $406 |
| Sep 12, 05:05 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.3% | $3 |
| Sep 12, 01:18 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.2% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 96.5%. Next is Yes at 3.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/magnitude-6pt5-earthquake-in-la-before-2027?via=bro
$20.6K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 07, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681.
No, priced at 96.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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