As of October 24, 2026, 07:49 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% at 97.1% in Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair — $161.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%, is priced at 97.1%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past month: -0.9 pts.
Since January 20, 2026, Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% has traded between 13.5% and 98.5%. It opened at 24.0% and last traded at 97.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 97.1% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 97.1% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.1% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.1% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.2% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 97.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 97.2% |
Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% is favored at 97.1%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% | 97¢ | 97.1% | -0.1 pts | $10.9K | 6.7% |
| Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5% | 3¢ | 3.1% | +0.5 pts | $6.2K | 3.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 96¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$161.6K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe. This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met. The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair? This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026? … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,321 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 5,321 | $154 |
| Ample-Instance | Yes | 1,968 | $1.9K |
| Sardonic-Cue | Yes | 1,574 | $1.5K |
| Indelible-Vitamin | Yes | 1,012 | $983 |
| Grown-Fence | No | 600 | $17 |
| Evergreen-Wifi | Yes | 576 | $559 |
| Brave-Cornflakes | No | 348 | $10 |
| Testy-Operator | Yes | 343 | $333 |
| 0x4e25605f… | Yes | 275 | $267 |
| Common-Nitrogen | Yes | 221 | $214 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 05, 02:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 96.7% | $68 |
| Oct 01, 02:45 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 98.4% | $5 |
| Sep 30, 05:19 PM ET | No | BUY | 2.3% | $14 |
| Sep 25, 05:56 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 98.4% | $5 |
| Sep 24, 05:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 2.3% | $3 |
| Sep 23, 01:10 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 96.9% | $29 |
| Sep 14, 06:47 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 95.1% | $72 |
| Sep 11, 02:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 96.0% | $139 |
| Sep 06, 07:24 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 95.0% | $71 |
| Sep 03, 11:44 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% at 97.1%. Next is Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5% at 3.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/major-rate-cut-chances-under-each-fed-chair-948?via=bro
$161.6K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm.
Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%, priced at 97.1% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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