Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

As of October 24, 2026, 07:49 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% at 97.1% in Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair — $161.6K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%
97%
A 97.1% price implies roughly a 97-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.1 pts30D −0.9 pts
Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%97.1%
Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5%3.1%
Bid
96¢
Ask
98¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since January 20, 2026: 13.5% – 98.5% · Opened at 24.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair
Category
Parlays, Hide From New, Fed Chair
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$161.6K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$2.8K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% — 97.1%
Resolution source
https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%, is priced at 97.1%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past month: -0.9 pts.

Since January 20, 2026, Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% has traded between 13.5% and 98.5%. It opened at 24.0% and last traded at 97.2%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202697.1%
Oct 16, 202697.1%
Oct 18, 202697.1%
Oct 19, 202697.1%
Oct 20, 202697.2%
Oct 22, 202697.2%
Oct 23, 202697.2%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% is favored at 97.1%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%97¢97.1%-0.1 pts$10.9K6.7%
Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5%3¢3.1%+0.5 pts$6.2K3.8%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 96¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$161.6K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe. This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met. The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair? This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026? … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,321 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No5,321$154
Ample-InstanceYes1,968$1.9K
Sardonic-CueYes1,574$1.5K
Indelible-VitaminYes1,012$983
Grown-FenceNo600$17
Evergreen-WifiYes576$559
Brave-CornflakesNo348$10
Testy-OperatorYes343$333
0x4e25605f…Yes275$267
Common-NitrogenYes221$214

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $139 at 96.0%SELL Yes — $72 at 95.1%SELL Yes — $71 at 95.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 05, 02:44 PM ETYesSELL96.7%$68
Oct 01, 02:45 AM ETYesBUY98.4%$5
Sep 30, 05:19 PM ETNoBUY2.3%$14
Sep 25, 05:56 PM ETYesBUY98.4%$5
Sep 24, 05:18 PM ETNoBUY2.3%$3
Sep 23, 01:10 AM ETYesBUY96.9%$29
Sep 14, 06:47 AM ETYesSELL95.1%$72
Sep 11, 02:04 PM ETYesBUY96.0%$139
Sep 06, 07:24 AM ETYesSELL95.0%$71
Sep 03, 11:44 AM ETYesSELL2.0%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% at 97.1%. Next is Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5% at 3.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/major-rate-cut-chances-under-each-fed-chair-948?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair?

$161.6K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm.

What is the most likely outcome of Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair, according to Polymarket traders?

Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%, priced at 97.1% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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