As of October 24, 2026, 07:47 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 88.0% in Natural Disaster in 2026? — $251.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 88.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts; past week: +0.5 pts; past month: -2.0 pts.
Since December 31, 2025, No has traded between 49.0% and 93.5%. It opened at 49.0% and last traded at 89.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 90.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 87.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 89.5% |
No is favored at 88.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 88¢ | 88.0% | -1.5 pts | $251.2K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 12¢ | 12.0% | +1.5 pts | $251.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 13¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$251.2K has been traded on this event in total, $50 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 8,775 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crooked-Hut | No | 8,775 | $7.7K |
| 0x79a14b2a… | Yes | 4,989 | $599 |
| Rotten-Watch-Short | No | 2,269 | $2.0K |
| Experienced-Carpeting | No | 2,191 | $1.9K |
| Political-Baobab | No | 1,800 | $1.6K |
| Frightening-Undertaker | Yes | 1,345 | $161 |
| Dishonest-Reality | Yes | 1,100 | $132 |
| Wobbly-Smoking | Yes | 1,100 | $132 |
| Gregarious-Fraction-Lion | Yes | 1,092 | $131 |
| Glorious-Memory | No | 1,000 | $880 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:45 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 08:38 AM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 08:37 AM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 08:44 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 04:39 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 04:35 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.1% | $90 |
| Oct 23, 12:55 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 12:33 PM ET | No | SELL | 83.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 12:23 PM ET | No | SELL | 85.3% | $105 |
| Oct 23, 12:23 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 17.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 88.0%. Next is Yes at 12.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/natural-disaster-in-2026?via=bro
$251.2K in total volume, with $50 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 88.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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