As of October 24, 2026, 08:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 1.35–1.39ºC at 37.0% in October 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) — $3.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 1.35–1.39ºC, is priced at 37.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -7.0 pts; past week: +13.0 pts.
Since September 30, 2026, 1.35–1.39ºC has traded between 20.0% and 48.5%. It opened at 48.5% and last traded at 37.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 27.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 32.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 44.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 36.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 37.0% |
1.35–1.39ºC is favored at 37.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.35–1.39ºC | 37¢ | 37.0% | -7.0 pts | $238 | 7.8% |
| 1.45–1.49ºC | 36¢ | 36.5% | -10.0 pts | $98 | 3.2% |
| >1.49ºC | 32¢ | 32.5% | +4.5 pts | $1.2K | 40.0% |
| 1.40–1.44ºC | 16¢ | 16.5% | -16.0 pts | $109 | 3.6% |
| 1.30–1.34ºC | 15¢ | 15.0% | +0.5 pts | $244 | 8.0% |
| <1.30ºC | 3¢ | 3.4% | -0.5 pts | $1.1K | 37.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 68¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 71¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.0K has been traded on this event in total, $7 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 01, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for October 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for October 2026 is later revised. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Oct" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2026 is provided by NASA by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Resolution source: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 65 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 65 | $41 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 50 | $19 |
| Good-Gram-Prostacyclin | Yes | 35 | $13 |
| 0x89a387d4… | No | 20 | $13 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 10:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 09:19 AM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $52 |
| Oct 22, 06:36 AM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $65 |
| Oct 22, 06:33 AM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $130 |
| Oct 22, 05:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $13 |
| Oct 21, 03:11 AM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $65 |
| Oct 18, 07:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $121 |
| Oct 18, 01:33 PM ET | No | BUY | 69.0% | $69 |
| Oct 17, 10:40 PM ET | No | BUY | 69.0% | $41 |
| Oct 17, 11:19 AM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $13 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is 1.35–1.39ºC at 37.0%. Next is 1.45–1.49ºC at 36.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/october-2026-temperature-increase-c-20260928t160000000z?via=bro
$3.0K in total volume, with $7 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 01, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt.
1.35–1.39ºC, priced at 37.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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