Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Peak wind gust in the world's windiest city in October

As of October 24, 2026, 08:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 86 to 95 km/h at 50.0% in Peak wind gust in the world's windiest city in October — $4.9K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $31.
Leading outcome
86 to 95 km/h
50%
A 50.0% price implies roughly a 50-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.5 pts7D −10.5 pts
86 to 95 km/h50.0%
96 km/h or above35.5%
Bid
33¢
Ask
67¢
Spread
34¢
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Range since September 30, 2026: 20.0% – 66.0% · Opened at 34.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Peak wind gust in the world's windiest city in October
Category
Weather, New Zealand, Climate & Science, Weather & Science
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$4.9K
Volume (24h)
$31
Liquidity
$1.4K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
86 to 95 km/h — 50.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 86 to 95 km/h, is priced at 50.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -10.5 pts.

Since September 30, 2026, 86 to 95 km/h has traded between 20.0% and 66.0%. It opened at 34.5% and last traded at 51.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202640.0%
Oct 16, 202652.0%
Oct 18, 202662.5%
Oct 19, 202666.0%
Oct 20, 202653.0%
Oct 23, 202649.0%
Oct 24, 202651.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

86 to 95 km/h is favored at 50.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
86 to 95 km/h50¢50.0%-0.5 pts$2.0K39.9%
96 km/h or above36¢35.5%-5.5 pts$99720.4%
85 km/h or below4¢4.0%-0.4 pts$1.9K39.7%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 34¢ (bid 33¢ / ask 67¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$4.9K has been traded on this event in total, $31 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to the wind-gust range that contains the maximum wind gust, in km/h, recorded in any routine (METAR) or special (SPECI) observation from Wellington Airport (ICAO: NZWN) between October 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Wellington, New Zealand is widely recognized as the world's windiest city, and its airport regularly records powerful gusts that make headlines and viral landing videos worldwide. The resolution source for this market is the gust value in the wind group of NZWN's raw METAR/SPECI observations, encoded in knots (for example, "34020G45KT" denotes a 45-knot gust), as archived by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) for station NZWN in network NF__ASOS ("New Zealand ASOS"). Gust speed is converted from knots using 1 kt = 1.852 km/h, rounded half-up to the nearest whole number. Because gusts are reported in whole knots, no observed gust converts to a value on a bracket boundary, so every observation maps to exactly one range. The month's highest gust can be located via the IEM Data Calendar for NZWN: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?network=NF__ASOS&year=2026&month=10&mode=monthly&station=NZWN. Each calendar day displays that day's peak gust inline; clicking a day's date opens the daily Summary for NF__ASOS, where the Peak Gust column in the NZWN (Wellington) row shows the day's maximum. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 507 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Corny-HyphenationYes507$254
0xa5ef39c3…No411$205
Teeming-PuppetNo378$189
0xf51b1d56…Yes110$55
Fair-TanYes100$50
Past-DisguiseYes84$42
Gripping-AbolishmentNo60$30
Belated-GlueYes55$27
Bouncy-SavingNo40$20
Secondary-MagicYes21$10

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $365 at 80.5%BUY Yes — $330 at 70.5%SELL No — $231 at 84.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 09:32 AM ETYesBUY49.0%$15
Oct 23, 02:37 AM ETNoBUY55.0%$16
Oct 22, 10:52 PM ETNoBUY72.0%$29
Oct 22, 12:10 AM ETNoBUY74.0%$2
Oct 20, 09:33 PM ETYesBUY1.0%$0
Oct 19, 11:38 PM ETYesBUY62.0%$16
Oct 19, 09:33 PM ETYesBUY1.0%$0
Oct 19, 09:32 PM ETNoBUY99.0%$124
Oct 17, 05:05 AM ETYesBUY69.0%$14
Oct 16, 11:52 AM ETYesBUY50.9%$61

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Peak wind gust in the world's windiest city in October?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is 86 to 95 km/h at 50.0%. Next is 96 km/h or above at 35.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/peak-wind-gust-in-the-worlds-windiest-city-in-october-20260928t160000000z?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Peak wind gust in the world's windiest city in October?

$4.9K in total volume, with $31 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does Peak wind gust in the world's windiest city in October end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Peak wind gust in the world's windiest city in October, according to Polymarket traders?

86 to 95 km/h, priced at 50.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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