As of October 24, 2026, 08:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 86 to 95 km/h at 50.0% in Peak wind gust in the world's windiest city in October — $4.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 86 to 95 km/h, is priced at 50.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -10.5 pts.
Since September 30, 2026, 86 to 95 km/h has traded between 20.0% and 66.0%. It opened at 34.5% and last traded at 51.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 40.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 52.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 62.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 66.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 53.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 49.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 51.0% |
86 to 95 km/h is favored at 50.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86 to 95 km/h | 50¢ | 50.0% | -0.5 pts | $2.0K | 39.9% |
| 96 km/h or above | 36¢ | 35.5% | -5.5 pts | $997 | 20.4% |
| 85 km/h or below | 4¢ | 4.0% | -0.4 pts | $1.9K | 39.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 34¢ (bid 33¢ / ask 67¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$4.9K has been traded on this event in total, $31 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to the wind-gust range that contains the maximum wind gust, in km/h, recorded in any routine (METAR) or special (SPECI) observation from Wellington Airport (ICAO: NZWN) between October 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Wellington, New Zealand is widely recognized as the world's windiest city, and its airport regularly records powerful gusts that make headlines and viral landing videos worldwide. The resolution source for this market is the gust value in the wind group of NZWN's raw METAR/SPECI observations, encoded in knots (for example, "34020G45KT" denotes a 45-knot gust), as archived by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) for station NZWN in network NF__ASOS ("New Zealand ASOS"). Gust speed is converted from knots using 1 kt = 1.852 km/h, rounded half-up to the nearest whole number. Because gusts are reported in whole knots, no observed gust converts to a value on a bracket boundary, so every observation maps to exactly one range. The month's highest gust can be located via the IEM Data Calendar for NZWN: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?network=NF__ASOS&year=2026&month=10&mode=monthly&station=NZWN. Each calendar day displays that day's peak gust inline; clicking a day's date opens the daily Summary for NF__ASOS, where the Peak Gust column in the NZWN (Wellington) row shows the day's maximum. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 507 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corny-Hyphenation | Yes | 507 | $254 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 411 | $205 |
| Teeming-Puppet | No | 378 | $189 |
| 0xf51b1d56… | Yes | 110 | $55 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 100 | $50 |
| Past-Disguise | Yes | 84 | $42 |
| Gripping-Abolishment | No | 60 | $30 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 55 | $27 |
| Bouncy-Saving | No | 40 | $20 |
| Secondary-Magic | Yes | 21 | $10 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 09:32 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 49.0% | $15 |
| Oct 23, 02:37 AM ET | No | BUY | 55.0% | $16 |
| Oct 22, 10:52 PM ET | No | BUY | 72.0% | $29 |
| Oct 22, 12:10 AM ET | No | BUY | 74.0% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 09:33 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 19, 11:38 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 62.0% | $16 |
| Oct 19, 09:33 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 19, 09:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.0% | $124 |
| Oct 17, 05:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 69.0% | $14 |
| Oct 16, 11:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 50.9% | $61 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is 86 to 95 km/h at 50.0%. Next is 96 km/h or above at 35.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/peak-wind-gust-in-the-worlds-windiest-city-in-october-20260928t160000000z?via=bro
$4.9K in total volume, with $31 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
86 to 95 km/h, priced at 50.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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