As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 98.0% in Plague pandemic in 2026? — $508.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 98.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.1 pts; past week: -0.7 pts.
Since October 05, 2026, No has traded between 94.0% and 98.2%. It opened at 94.0% and last traded at 98.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 98.0% |
No is favored at 98.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98¢ | 98.0% | -0.1 pts | $508.8K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 2¢ | 1.9% | +0.1 pts | $508.8K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 2¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$508.8K has been traded on this event in total, $699 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the disease or outbreak as a "pandemic". A Public Health Emergency of International Concern alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 54,732 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Babyish-Flume-Trail | Yes | 54,732 | $1.1K |
| Quarterly-Backpack | No | 47,223 | $46.3K |
| Cheerful-Ephemera | No | 43,470 | $42.6K |
| Altruistic-Shaw | Yes | 14,495 | $283 |
| 0x858d3968… | Yes | 13,312 | $260 |
| Tart-Raffle-Ascot | Yes | 10,905 | $213 |
| Broken-Dogwood | No | 8,888 | $8.7K |
| Positive-Steam | No | 8,253 | $8.1K |
| Worthless-Anniversary-Cornerstone | Yes | 5,597 | $109 |
| Icky-Milk | Yes | 2,487 | $48 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:31 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.7% | $188 |
| Oct 24, 12:17 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.0% | $229 |
| Oct 24, 07:05 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.2% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 06:43 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.2% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 06:14 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.3% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 06:10 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.2% | $34 |
| Oct 24, 05:19 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.3% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 04:59 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.3% | $21 |
| Oct 23, 10:45 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.7% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 03:24 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.8% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 98.0%. Next is Yes at 1.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/plague-pandemic-in-2026?via=bro
$508.8K in total volume, with $699 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 98.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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