As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 40.0% in Screwworm National Emergency declared by...? — $11.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 40.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -6.5 pts; past week: +27.0 pts; past month: +27.5 pts.
Since June 10, 2026, December 31 has traded between 11.0% and 73.0%. It opened at 52.0% and last traded at 48.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 16.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 14.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 13.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 11.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 11.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 37.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 48.0% |
December 31 is favored at 40.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 40¢ | 40.0% | -6.5 pts | $5.1K | 42.9% |
| October 31 | 8¢ | 7.5% | — | $4.9K | 41.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 56¢ (bid 12¢ / ask 68¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$11.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 635 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unfit-Hardboard | No | 635 | $381 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 520 | $208 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 137 | $55 |
| Unlined-Pole | No | 110 | $66 |
| Orderly-Dentist | Yes | 79 | $32 |
| Punctual-Hydrogen | Yes | 44 | $17 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 40 | $16 |
| Arid-Cinema | No | 40 | $24 |
| Gripping-Referendum | No | 28 | $17 |
| Minor-Television | Yes | 18 | $7 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 09:09 PM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $182 |
| Oct 22, 09:08 PM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $18 |
| Oct 22, 09:07 PM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $37 |
| Oct 22, 09:07 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.6% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 09:07 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.6% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 09:07 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.6% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 09:07 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.6% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 09:07 PM ET | No | SELL | 92.5% | $60 |
| Oct 22, 05:32 AM ET | No | BUY | 61.0% | $52 |
| Oct 21, 06:06 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.2% | $23 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 40.0%. Next is October 31 at 7.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/screwworm-national-emergency-declared-byptptpt-20260609150610739?via=bro
$11.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 40.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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