As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price SpaceX at 85.4% in SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap? — $13.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, SpaceX, is priced at 85.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +10.1 pts; past week: +7.6 pts; past month: +29.3 pts.
Since January 30, 2026, SpaceX has traded between 48.6% and 98.9%. It opened at 51.5% and last traded at 85.3%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 75.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 76.3% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 76.3% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 75.7% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 76.1% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 85.3% |
SpaceX is favored at 85.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | 85¢ | 85.4% | +10.1 pts | $13.3K | 100.0% |
| OpenAI | 15¢ | 14.6% | -10.1 pts | $13.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 20¢ (bid 75¢ / ask 96¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$13.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “SpaceX” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day. This market will resolve to “OpenAI” if the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day. This market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does not complete an IPO within the market timeframe. This market will resolve to the IPOed company as soon as it becomes impossible for the other company to complete an IPO within the market timeframe, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. - Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO within this market's timeframe, and their IPO closing market capitalizations are exactly equal. - Both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,973 shares of OpenAI.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct-Plumber | OpenAI | 1,973 | $289 |
| Strident-Challenge | SpaceX | 1,523 | $1.3K |
| Possible-Preoccupation | OpenAI | 1,340 | $196 |
| Lovely-Sailor | SpaceX | 1,101 | $940 |
| Imaginative-University | SpaceX | 1,032 | $881 |
| Hospitable-Bathhouse | SpaceX | 941 | $803 |
| Narrow-Subset | SpaceX | 809 | $690 |
| Immaculate-Outhouse | OpenAI | 809 | $119 |
| Bustling-Precedent | OpenAI | 694 | $102 |
| Probable-Serial | OpenAI | 694 | $102 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 12:21 PM ET | SpaceX | SELL | 72.0% | $13 |
| Oct 20, 08:39 AM ET | OpenAI | BUY | 28.0% | $1 |
| Oct 09, 10:44 AM ET | OpenAI | BUY | 20.0% | $57 |
| Oct 09, 10:44 AM ET | SpaceX | BUY | 80.0% | $11 |
| Oct 09, 07:49 AM ET | OpenAI | BUY | 20.1% | $10 |
| Oct 09, 07:13 AM ET | OpenAI | SELL | 20.0% | $1 |
| Oct 09, 05:10 AM ET | OpenAI | BUY | 20.1% | $1 |
| Oct 02, 05:07 AM ET | OpenAI | SELL | 8.0% | $58 |
| Sep 18, 09:32 PM ET | SpaceX | SELL | 29.5% | $3 |
| Sep 17, 07:51 PM ET | OpenAI | BUY | 36.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is SpaceX at 85.4%. Next is OpenAI at 14.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-or-openai-higher-ipo-closing-market-cap?via=bro
$13.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
SpaceX, priced at 85.4% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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