As of October 24, 2026, 07:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 62.0% in SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? — $123.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 62.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.5 pts; past week: +5.0 pts; past month: +13.5 pts.
Since November 12, 2025, No has traded between 28.5% and 76.5%. It opened at 58.5% and last traded at 59.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 67.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 67.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 67.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 57.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 59.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 59.5% |
No is favored at 62.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 62¢ | 62.0% | +2.5 pts | $123.8K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 38¢ | 38.0% | -2.5 pts | $123.8K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 28¢ (bid 24¢ / ask 52¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$123.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
On February 28, Elon Musk posted that it was likely Starship would become fully reusable in 2025. You can see the X post here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895598258225106984 This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note, this market refers to the Starship upper stage and does not require reusability for the Super-Heavy booster. For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is not necessary that an actual reuse occur, only that SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by this market's resolution date. The resolution source for this market is announcements by Elon Musk and SpaceX, or their official representatives.
Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895598258225106984
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,913 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legitimate-Tornado | Yes | 2,913 | $1.1K |
| Circular-Sandpaper-Larder | No | 1,293 | $802 |
| Expert-Neuropathologist | Yes | 798 | $303 |
| Sympathetic-Prevention | No | 784 | $486 |
| Spirited-Challenge-Basketball | No | 500 | $310 |
| Warm-Habitat | Yes | 435 | $165 |
| Grown-Billion | No | 363 | $225 |
| Cylindrical-Tiger | No | 300 | $186 |
| Low-Jug | No | 248 | $153 |
| Exemplary-Questionnaire | Yes | 241 | $92 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 11:46 PM ET | No | BUY | 71.7% | $59 |
| Oct 21, 04:59 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 30.0% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 04:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 43.2% | $16 |
| Oct 20, 06:40 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 39.0% | $2 |
| Oct 17, 05:52 AM ET | No | SELL | 60.0% | $5 |
| Oct 13, 10:18 AM ET | No | BUY | 70.6% | $12 |
| Oct 13, 10:18 AM ET | No | BUY | 69.0% | $35 |
| Oct 12, 07:44 PM ET | No | SELL | 60.0% | $11 |
| Oct 12, 11:41 AM ET | No | SELL | 60.0% | $3 |
| Oct 12, 10:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 60.0% | $67 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 62.0%. Next is Yes at 38.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-starship-fully-reusable-before-2027?via=bro
$123.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895598258225106984.
No, priced at 62.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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