Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 62.5% in Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…? — $76.6K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $450.
Leading outcome
December 31, 2027
62%
A 62.5% price implies roughly a 62-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −5.0 pts30D +10.5 pts
December 31, 202762.5%
December 31, 20262.6%
Bid
62¢
Ask
63¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since June 11, 2026: 39.0% – 84.5% · Opened at 39.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…?
Category
SpaceX, Space, launch, starship, Elon Musk, space exploration, Tech, Big Tech
Scheduled end
December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$76.6K
Volume (24h)
$450
Liquidity
$29.4K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31, 2027 — 62.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 62.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -5.0 pts; past month: +10.5 pts.

Since June 11, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 39.0% and 84.5%. It opened at 39.0% and last traded at 61.5%.

DayClose
Oct 12, 202659.0%
Oct 13, 202658.5%
Oct 15, 202660.0%
Oct 16, 202664.0%
Oct 18, 202660.5%
Oct 19, 202662.5%
Oct 20, 202661.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31, 2027 is favored at 62.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 31, 202762¢62.5%—$28.7K37.4%
December 31, 20263¢2.6%-0.1 pts$47.9K62.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 62¢ / ask 63¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$76.6K has been traded on this event in total, $450 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface. The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,610 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Legitimate-TornadoYes5,610$3.5K
Negligible-LastNo5,377$2.0K
Scientific-SophomoreNo1,149$431
Academic-ForecastYes681$425
Vivacious-FondueNo385$144
Euphoric-FlanYes350$219
Belated-GlueYes261$163
Daring-PirateYes240$150
Circular-Sandpaper-LarderNo219$82
EddyTriNo180$68

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $2.5K at 96.3%SELL Yes — $90 at 60.0%SELL No — $83 at 96.7%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:05 PM ETYesBUY65.0%$32
Oct 24, 04:05 PM ETYesBUY63.0%$63
Oct 24, 03:44 PM ETYesBUY61.0%$9
Oct 24, 03:20 PM ETYesBUY61.0%$12
Oct 24, 03:20 PM ETYesBUY61.0%$10
Oct 24, 03:20 PM ETYesSELL60.0%$90
Oct 24, 11:23 AM ETNoBUY97.8%$10
Oct 24, 11:14 AM ETNoBUY97.8%$39
Oct 24, 10:41 AM ETNoBUY97.7%$49
Oct 23, 06:55 PM ETYesSELL69.0%$34

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 62.5%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 2.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/two-spacex-starships-dock-together-by?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…??

$76.6K in total volume, with $450 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, 2027, priced at 62.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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