As of October 24, 2026, 09:14 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 93.8% in Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026? — $670 traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 93.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.1 pts; past month: -0.6 pts.
Since April 21, 2026, No has traded between 84.5% and 99.8%. It opened at 90.0% and last traded at 93.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 93.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 93.8% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 93.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 93.8% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 93.8% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 93.8% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 93.8% |
No is favored at 93.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 94¢ | 93.8% | — | $670 | 100.0% |
| Yes | 6¢ | 6.2% | — | $670 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 10¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 11¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$670 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption. If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Resolution source: https://volcano.si.edu/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 79 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Demanding-City | No | 79 | $74 |
| Compassionate-Kneejerk | No | 42 | $40 |
| 0x6747ff4e… | Yes | 38 | $2 |
| Authentic-Leather | Yes | 35 | $2 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 34 | $2 |
| Big-Hearted-Shaker | No | 30 | $28 |
| Deep-Director | Yes | 28 | $2 |
| Strange-Minimum | No | 26 | $24 |
| Gloomy-Interchange | Yes | 14 | $1 |
| Worse-Scenario | No | 11 | $10 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 05, 03:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 16.8% | $1 |
| Oct 05, 01:44 PM ET | No | SELL | 87.5% | $4 |
| Aug 25, 08:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.5% | $0 |
| Aug 25, 07:41 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $5 |
| Aug 24, 02:36 AM ET | No | SELL | 92.1% | $3 |
| Aug 06, 10:29 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.2% | $2 |
| Aug 06, 10:27 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.2% | $3 |
| Aug 06, 10:24 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.2% | $3 |
| Aug 05, 05:31 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.3% | $0 |
| Aug 04, 07:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $28 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 93.8%. Next is Yes at 6.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/vesuvius-eruption-with-1-vei-in-2026?via=bro
$670 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://volcano.si.edu/.
No, priced at 93.8% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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