As of October 24, 2026, 06:31 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 20 to 34 at 95.5% in How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026? — $69.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 20 to 34, is priced at 95.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.0 pts; past week: +19.4 pts; past month: +76.2 pts.
Since August 20, 2026, 20 to 34 has traded between 0.5% and 97.5%. It opened at 46.0% and last traded at 95.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 39.9% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 39.9% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 75.8% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 75.9% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 84.1% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.5% |
20 to 34 is favored at 95.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 to 34 | 95¢ | 95.5% | -2.0 pts | $27.6K | 39.5% |
| 35 to 49 | 3¢ | 3.4% | +0.9 pts | $17.6K | 25.2% |
| 50 or more | 2¢ | 2.0% | +1.8 pts | $14.9K | 21.3% |
| Fewer than 20 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $9.8K | 14.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 95¢ / ask 96¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$69.8K has been traded on this event in total, $1.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page. Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap. The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure. If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time. If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,153 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 5,153 | $234 |
| Mataty1 | Yes | 3,036 | $2.9K |
| Awesome-Availability | Yes | 1,341 | $1.3K |
| Clear-Cut-Tuna | Yes | 755 | $721 |
| 0x3a9dad53… | Yes | 536 | $511 |
| Sore-Pitching | Yes | 502 | $479 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 252 | $11 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 221 | $10 |
| Shy-Note | Yes | 221 | $211 |
| Sweaty-Gearshift | No | 197 | $9 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:20 PM ET | No | BUY | 5.1% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 01:20 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.8% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 01:20 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.5% | $30 |
| Oct 24, 08:11 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.4% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 08:06 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 07:14 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.2% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 06:40 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 05:59 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 04:13 AM ET | No | SELL | 3.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 04:13 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 97.0% | $19 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 20 to 34 at 95.5%. Next is 35 to 49 at 3.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/west-nile-neuroinvasive-cases-nyc-2026-20260820104404?via=bro
$69.8K in total volume, with $1.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
20 to 34, priced at 95.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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