As of October 24, 2026, 07:49 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Does not return by November 1, 2026 at 96.2% in When will the Danube River return to normal levels? — $160.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Does not return by November 1, 2026, is priced at 96.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.2 pts; past week: +10.2 pts; past month: +58.2 pts.
Since August 10, 2026, Does not return by November 1, 2026 has traded between 3.6% and 97.5%. It opened at 7.5% and last traded at 97.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 86.7% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 86.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 85.4% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 85.6% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 94.9% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 97.5% |
Does not return by November 1, 2026 is favored at 96.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Does not return by November 1, 2026 | 96¢ | 96.2% | -1.2 pts | $54.0K | 33.8% |
| October 1 - 31, 2026 | 3¢ | 3.5% | +1.3 pts | $45.9K | 28.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 96¢ / ask 97¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$160.1K has been traded on this event in total, $15 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market. "Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period. The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 7,781 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 7,781 | $296 |
| Light-Hygienic | Yes | 5,000 | $4.8K |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 3,816 | $3.7K |
| Miniature-Temple | No | 2,238 | $85 |
| Awesome-Availability | No | 773 | $29 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 767 | $29 |
| 0x372a2350… | Yes | 615 | $592 |
| Dismal-Moustache | Yes | 523 | $503 |
| Ample-Fiction | Yes | 449 | $432 |
| Sore-Pitching | Yes | 445 | $428 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:59 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 02:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 96.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 01:40 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 95.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 10:52 AM ET | No | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 06:12 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 95.0% | $133 |
| Oct 23, 06:12 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 95.8% | $13 |
| Oct 23, 03:37 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 96.8% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 03:36 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 97.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 03:36 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 03:36 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 96.9% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Does not return by November 1, 2026 at 96.2%. Next is October 1 - 31, 2026 at 3.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-danube-river-return-to-normal-levels-20260807212534133?via=bro
$160.1K in total volume, with $15 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO.
Does not return by November 1, 2026, priced at 96.2% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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