As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Mariah Carey at 96.2% in Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year? — $189.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Mariah Carey, is priced at 96.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.4 pts; past week: -0.8 pts; past month: -2.2 pts.
Since January 09, 2026, Mariah Carey has traded between 47.5% and 100.0%. It opened at 47.5% and last traded at 96.6%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 96.9% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 97.1% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.9% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.6% |
Mariah Carey is favored at 96.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariah Carey | 96¢ | 96.2% | -0.4 pts | $6.3K | 3.3% |
| SZA | 47¢ | 47.0% | +30.5 pts | $1.6K | 0.9% |
| Morgan Wallen | 24¢ | 24.5% | — | $585 | 0.3% |
| Doja Cat | 23¢ | 23.1% | +11.7 pts | $11.8K | 6.2% |
| Kendrick Lamar | 22¢ | 21.5% | — | $5.9K | 3.1% |
| Travis Scott | 22¢ | 21.5% | -0.5 pts | $6.2K | 3.3% |
| Post Malone | 20¢ | 19.5% | — | $2.5K | 1.3% |
| A$AP Rocky | 16¢ | 16.4% | +2.1 pts | $2.6K | 1.4% |
| Jack Harlow | 16¢ | 15.6% | -0.2 pts | $10.4K | 5.5% |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 14¢ | 14.5% | -2.0 pts | $3.2K | 1.7% |
| The Weeknd | 13¢ | 13.0% | — | $6.2K | 3.3% |
| Future | 12¢ | 11.6% | -0.5 pts | $7.1K | 3.8% |
| Zach Bryan | 11¢ | 11.0% | -0.5 pts | $1.7K | 0.9% |
| Rihanna | 10¢ | 10.2% | -0.4 pts | $2.3K | 1.2% |
| Frank Ocean | 9¢ | 8.6% | +1.4 pts | $9.6K | 5.0% |
| Tyler, The Creator | 8¢ | 8.5% | — | $1.0K | 0.6% |
| Playboi Carti | 8¢ | 8.1% | +2.6 pts | $9.8K | 5.2% |
| Lil Baby | 8¢ | 7.6% | — | $1.7K | 0.9% |
| Peso Pluma | 6¢ | 6.5% | — | $444 | 0.2% |
| Luke Combs | 6¢ | 6.0% | -4.0 pts | $3.5K | 1.9% |
| Billie Eilish | 3¢ | 3.4% | +0.5 pts | $42.5K | 22.5% |
| Kanye West | 3¢ | 3.0% | — | $866 | 0.5% |
| Ed Sheeran | 3¢ | 2.8% | +0.1 pts | $865 | 0.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 94¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$189.4K has been traded on this event in total, $423 of it in the last 24 hours, across 23 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart. Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,184 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Awesome-Availability | Yes | 1,184 | $1.1K |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 373 | $14 |
| Evil-Row | No | 223 | $8 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 150 | $6 |
| Drab-Cathedral | No | 144 | $5 |
| Straight-Apprehension | Yes | 100 | $96 |
| 0x6b0ebbef… | No | 81 | $3 |
| Bouncy-Saving | No | 80 | $3 |
| Terrific-Reparation-Till | No | 50 | $2 |
| Hasty-Rhinoceros | No | 50 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:36 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.2% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 06:21 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.8% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 01:57 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.8% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 01:57 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.7% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 08:00 AM ET | No | SELL | 77.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 04:37 AM ET | No | BUY | 83.5% | $17 |
| Oct 23, 04:37 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 02:34 AM ET | No | SELL | 79.5% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 02:35 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.1% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 02:35 PM ET | No | BUY | 84.9% | $21 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Mariah Carey at 96.2%. Next is SZA at 47.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-artists-will-have-a-billboard-1-song-this-year?via=bro
$189.4K in total volume, with $423 traded in the last 24 hours across 23 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/.
Mariah Carey, priced at 96.2% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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