Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Which cities face tornado risk on October 24?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:53 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Austin, TX at 50.0% in Which cities face tornado risk on October 24? — $4.2K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $4.2K.
Leading outcome
Austin, TX
50%
A 50.0% price implies roughly a 50-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
Austin, TX50.0%
Fort Worth, TX50.0%
Bid
1¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
98¢
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Market facts

Event data
Event
Which cities face tornado risk on October 24?
Category
Weather, Recurring, Tornado Risk, Hide From New
Scheduled end
October 25, 2026, 08:00 AM ET
Total volume
$4.2K
Volume (24h)
$4.2K
Liquidity
$633
Markets
25
Leading outcome
Austin, TX — 50.0%
Resolution source
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Austin, TX is favored at 50.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Austin, TX50¢50.0%—$00.0%
Fort Worth, TX50¢50.0%—$00.0%
Oklahoma City, OK50¢50.0%—$00.0%
Kansas City, MO50¢50.0%—$00.0%
San Antonio, TX50¢49.5%—$3277.9%
Dallas, TX50¢49.5%—$3277.9%
Charlotte, NC50¢49.5%—$2275.5%
Nashville, TN50¢49.5%—$2275.5%
Memphis, TN50¢49.5%—$2275.5%
Atlanta, GA50¢49.5%—$2275.5%
Minneapolis, MN50¢49.5%—$100.2%
Tampa, FL50¢49.5%—$2275.5%
St. Louis, MO50¢49.5%—$2275.5%
Birmingham, AL50¢49.5%—$2275.5%
Houston, TX49¢49.0%—$501.2%
Denver, CO49¢49.0%—$501.2%
Omaha, NE49¢49.0%—$421.0%
Wichita, KS49¢49.0%—$501.2%
New Orleans, LA49¢49.0%—$601.4%
Little Rock, AR49¢49.0%—$501.2%
Columbus, OH48¢48.5%—$3277.9%
Indianapolis, IN48¢48.5%—$3277.9%
Louisville, KY48¢48.5%—$3277.9%
Chicago, IL48¢48.1%—$2275.5%
Des Moines, IA0¢0.1%—$3979.5%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 98¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 99¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$4.2K has been traded on this event in total, $4.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 25 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 08:00 AM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Austin, TX falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on October 24, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percentages (2%, 5%, 10%, etc.) to geographic areas across the US. If the city's coordinates fall inside any area rated 2% or higher, that city resolves "Yes". If a city is outside all tornado probability areas, or only within areas rated below 2%, that city resolves "No". The SPC outlook is published as machine-readable geographic data (GeoJSON) at spc.noaa.gov. Each city's coordinates and the polygon boundaries are publicly verifiable. Borderline cases can be independently confirmed using the polygon data (excluding the hatched SIGN overlay, which is not a probability rating) and the city's listed coordinates. The point-in-polygon test is performed on unprojected WGS84 (EPSG:4326) coordinates, which is the native coordinate system of the SPC GeoJSON data. Resolution is based on the scheduled 01:00 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook update issued on the following UTC calendar day. The SPC Day 1 outlook covers a 24-hour period from 12:00 UTC to 12:00 UTC the following day. That scheduled update is the revisions cutoff; subsequent revisions published after it will not be considered. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $324 at 99.0%BUY No — $324 at 99.0%BUY No — $324 at 99.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 09:52 AM ETYesSELL0.1%$0
Oct 24, 09:50 AM ETNoBUY99.0%$324
Oct 24, 09:50 AM ETNoBUY99.0%$324
Oct 24, 09:18 AM ETNoBUY99.0%$324

Related markets

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Which cities face tornado risk on October 24??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is Austin, TX at 50.0%. Next is Fort Worth, TX at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-cities-face-tornado-risk-on-october-24-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Which cities face tornado risk on October 24??

$4.2K in total volume, with $4.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 25 markets.

When does Which cities face tornado risk on October 24? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 08:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html.

What is the most likely outcome of Which cities face tornado risk on October 24?, according to Polymarket traders?

Austin, TX, priced at 50.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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