As of October 24, 2026, 08:53 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Austin, TX at 50.0% in Which cities face tornado risk on October 24? — $4.2K traded so far.
Austin, TX is favored at 50.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin, TX | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Fort Worth, TX | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Oklahoma City, OK | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Kansas City, MO | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| San Antonio, TX | 50¢ | 49.5% | — | $327 | 7.9% |
| Dallas, TX | 50¢ | 49.5% | — | $327 | 7.9% |
| Charlotte, NC | 50¢ | 49.5% | — | $227 | 5.5% |
| Nashville, TN | 50¢ | 49.5% | — | $227 | 5.5% |
| Memphis, TN | 50¢ | 49.5% | — | $227 | 5.5% |
| Atlanta, GA | 50¢ | 49.5% | — | $227 | 5.5% |
| Minneapolis, MN | 50¢ | 49.5% | — | $10 | 0.2% |
| Tampa, FL | 50¢ | 49.5% | — | $227 | 5.5% |
| St. Louis, MO | 50¢ | 49.5% | — | $227 | 5.5% |
| Birmingham, AL | 50¢ | 49.5% | — | $227 | 5.5% |
| Houston, TX | 49¢ | 49.0% | — | $50 | 1.2% |
| Denver, CO | 49¢ | 49.0% | — | $50 | 1.2% |
| Omaha, NE | 49¢ | 49.0% | — | $42 | 1.0% |
| Wichita, KS | 49¢ | 49.0% | — | $50 | 1.2% |
| New Orleans, LA | 49¢ | 49.0% | — | $60 | 1.4% |
| Little Rock, AR | 49¢ | 49.0% | — | $50 | 1.2% |
| Columbus, OH | 48¢ | 48.5% | — | $327 | 7.9% |
| Indianapolis, IN | 48¢ | 48.5% | — | $327 | 7.9% |
| Louisville, KY | 48¢ | 48.5% | — | $327 | 7.9% |
| Chicago, IL | 48¢ | 48.1% | — | $227 | 5.5% |
| Des Moines, IA | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $397 | 9.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 98¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 99¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$4.2K has been traded on this event in total, $4.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 25 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 08:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Austin, TX falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on October 24, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook assigns tornado probability percentages (2%, 5%, 10%, etc.) to geographic areas across the US. If the city's coordinates fall inside any area rated 2% or higher, that city resolves "Yes". If a city is outside all tornado probability areas, or only within areas rated below 2%, that city resolves "No". The SPC outlook is published as machine-readable geographic data (GeoJSON) at spc.noaa.gov. Each city's coordinates and the polygon boundaries are publicly verifiable. Borderline cases can be independently confirmed using the polygon data (excluding the hatched SIGN overlay, which is not a probability rating) and the city's listed coordinates. The point-in-polygon test is performed on unprojected WGS84 (EPSG:4326) coordinates, which is the native coordinate system of the SPC GeoJSON data. Resolution is based on the scheduled 01:00 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook update issued on the following UTC calendar day. The SPC Day 1 outlook covers a 24-hour period from 12:00 UTC to 12:00 UTC the following day. That scheduled update is the revisions cutoff; subsequent revisions published after it will not be considered. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 09:52 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 09:50 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.0% | $324 |
| Oct 24, 09:50 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.0% | $324 |
| Oct 24, 09:18 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.0% | $324 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is Austin, TX at 50.0%. Next is Fort Worth, TX at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-cities-face-tornado-risk-on-october-24-2026?via=bro
$4.2K in total volume, with $4.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 25 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 08:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html.
Austin, TX, priced at 50.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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