As of October 24, 2026, 07:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Twice at 46.8% in Which KPop groups will release songs in 2026? — $126.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Twice, is priced at 46.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -7.9 pts; past week: +9.6 pts; past month: +0.8 pts.
Since February 03, 2026, Twice has traded between 20.1% and 93.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 46.7%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 20.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 21.1% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 55.3% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 75.4% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 57.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 54.6% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 46.7% |
Twice is favored at 46.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twice | 47¢ | 46.8% | -7.9 pts | $16.1K | 12.7% |
| NewJeans | 45¢ | 45.0% | -2.5 pts | $514 | 0.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 75¢ (bid 9¢ / ask 84¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$126.3K has been traded on this event in total, $3 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 02:59 AM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed group officially releases a new song between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released song is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Songs released by individual members, subgroups, or any other configuration not under the listed group name will not qualify. If a song is released jointly by multiple groups credited equally as primary artists, the song will count for all of them. Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or remixes will not count. The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 757 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hard-Immigration | No | 757 | $403 |
| Piercing-Formation | Yes | 631 | $295 |
| True-Highlight | Yes | 301 | $141 |
| Upright-Entry | No | 299 | $159 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 64 | $34 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 55 | $26 |
| Bouncy-Saving | No | 40 | $21 |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | Yes | 30 | $14 |
| Cooperative-Sunroom | Yes | 25 | $12 |
| Foolish-Supervisor | Yes | 23 | $11 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:36 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 50.6% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 11:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 59.8% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 06:57 PM ET | No | BUY | 29.4% | $5 |
| Oct 20, 08:58 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 57.3% | $10 |
| Oct 20, 08:55 AM ET | No | BUY | 25.1% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 08:53 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 69.9% | $77 |
| Oct 20, 03:23 AM ET | No | BUY | 59.9% | $79 |
| Oct 19, 09:02 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 47.7% | $2 |
| Oct 19, 04:08 PM ET | No | BUY | 34.2% | $20 |
| Oct 18, 09:20 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 80.5% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Twice at 46.8%. Next is NewJeans at 45.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-kpop-groups-will-release-songs-in-2026?via=bro
$126.3K in total volume, with $3 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 02:59 AM ET.
Twice, priced at 46.8% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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