As of October 24, 2026, 08:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 93.3% in Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026? — $2.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 93.3%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.9 pts; past week: -8.3 pts; past month: -6.0 pts.
Since July 24, 2026, No has traded between 33.5% and 99.3%. It opened at 33.5% and last traded at 93.3%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 87.2% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 80.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 85.9% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 86.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 90.7% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 92.3% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 93.3% |
No is favored at 93.3%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 93¢ | 93.3% | +0.9 pts | $2.8K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 7¢ | 6.7% | -0.9 pts | $2.8K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 6¢ / ask 7¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least 2 hurricane landfalls occur in the conterminous United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued. A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If a single storm makes landfall more than once within this area during this period, each landfall identified as a distinct landfall by the NHC is counted separately toward the total. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 457 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mellow-Fork | No | 457 | $427 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 223 | $15 |
| Smoggy-Ginger | Yes | 135 | $9 |
| Tall-Impudence | Yes | 63 | $4 |
| Evil-Row | No | 42 | $40 |
| Unwitting-Floor | Yes | 40 | $3 |
| Fuzzy-Draft | Yes | 25 | $2 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 20 | $19 |
| Well-Worn-Stepson | Yes | 20 | $1 |
| Squiggly-Description | No | 20 | $19 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 08:12 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.4% | $2 |
| Oct 18, 10:52 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.7% | $0 |
| Oct 16, 06:43 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.4% | $1 |
| Oct 16, 05:43 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.9% | $0 |
| Oct 16, 04:43 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.9% | $3 |
| Oct 13, 06:25 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.9% | $7 |
| Oct 12, 06:51 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.5% | $17 |
| Oct 12, 10:03 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.6% | $0 |
| Oct 11, 08:13 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $1 |
| Oct 11, 09:33 AM ET | No | BUY | 87.4% | $104 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 93.3%. Next is Yes at 6.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-2-or-more-hurricanes-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-2026-20260721164140039?via=bro
$2.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 AM ET. It resolves based on https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/.
No, priced at 93.3% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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