Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 93.3% in Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026? — $2.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
No
93%
A 93.3% price implies roughly a 93-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.9 pts7D −8.3 pts30D −6.0 pts
No93.3%
Yes6.7%
Bid
6¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since July 24, 2026: 33.5% – 99.3% · Opened at 33.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?
Category
Weather, climate, hurricane, Hurricane Season
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 AM ET
Total volume
$2.8K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$1.2K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 93.3%
Resolution source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 93.3%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.9 pts; past week: -8.3 pts; past month: -6.0 pts.

Since July 24, 2026, No has traded between 33.5% and 99.3%. It opened at 33.5% and last traded at 93.3%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202687.2%
Oct 16, 202680.8%
Oct 18, 202685.9%
Oct 19, 202686.8%
Oct 20, 202690.7%
Oct 23, 202692.3%
Oct 24, 202693.3%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 93.3%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No93¢93.3%+0.9 pts$2.8K100.0%
Yes7¢6.7%-0.9 pts$2.8K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 6¢ / ask 7¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$2.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 AM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least 2 hurricane landfalls occur in the conterminous United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued. A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If a single storm makes landfall more than once within this area during this period, each landfall identified as a distinct landfall by the NHC is counted separately toward the total. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 457 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Mellow-ForkNo457$427
Belated-GlueYes223$15
Smoggy-GingerYes135$9
Tall-ImpudenceYes63$4
Evil-RowNo42$40
Unwitting-FloorYes40$3
Fuzzy-DraftYes25$2
Skeletal-LiverNo20$19
Well-Worn-StepsonYes20$1
Squiggly-DescriptionNo20$19

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $170 at 91.1%BUY No — $167 at 77.9%BUY No — $104 at 87.4%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 22, 08:12 AM ETYesBUY6.4%$2
Oct 18, 10:52 PM ETYesSELL7.7%$0
Oct 16, 06:43 PM ETYesBUY8.4%$1
Oct 16, 05:43 PM ETYesBUY7.9%$0
Oct 16, 04:43 PM ETYesBUY6.9%$3
Oct 13, 06:25 PM ETYesBUY15.9%$7
Oct 12, 06:51 PM ETYesBUY15.5%$17
Oct 12, 10:03 AM ETYesSELL3.6%$0
Oct 11, 08:13 PM ETYesSELL4.0%$1
Oct 11, 09:33 AM ETNoBUY87.4%$104

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 93.3%. Next is Yes at 6.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-2-or-more-hurricanes-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-2026-20260721164140039?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026??

$2.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 AM ET. It resolves based on https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/.

What is the most likely outcome of Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 93.3% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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