As of October 24, 2026, 06:31 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Anthropic at 95.0% in Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? — $437.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Anthropic, is priced at 95.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past week: -0.1 pts; past month: +0.2 pts.
Since January 30, 2026, Anthropic has traded between 24.5% and 96.8%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 95.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 95.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.3% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 94.3% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.1% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.0% |
Anthropic is favored at 95.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 95¢ | 95.0% | -0.1 pts | $437.9K | 100.0% |
| OpenAI | 5¢ | 5.0% | +0.1 pts | $437.9K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 95¢ / ask 96¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$437.9K has been traded on this event in total, $950 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 25,603 shares of Anthropic.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imaginative-River | Anthropic | 25,603 | $24.3K |
| Ample-Instance | OpenAI | 22,032 | $1.1K |
| Sudden-Automaton-Chronicle | Anthropic | 8,212 | $7.8K |
| Miniature-Leprosy | Anthropic | 6,728 | $6.4K |
| Spiffy-Win | OpenAI | 4,867 | $241 |
| Moist-Interviewer | Anthropic | 4,300 | $4.1K |
| Muffled-Protein | OpenAI | 3,155 | $156 |
| Growing-Way | Anthropic | 3,110 | $3.0K |
| Flat-Badger | Anthropic | 3,000 | $2.9K |
| Horrible-Strap | OpenAI | 2,917 | $144 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 10:00 AM ET | Anthropic | BUY | 95.5% | $907 |
| Oct 23, 02:27 PM ET | OpenAI | SELL | 5.1% | $26 |
| Oct 22, 05:23 PM ET | OpenAI | BUY | 5.5% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 05:23 PM ET | OpenAI | BUY | 5.2% | $25 |
| Oct 22, 05:08 PM ET | OpenAI | BUY | 5.2% | $21 |
| Oct 22, 10:30 AM ET | Anthropic | SELL | 94.8% | $68 |
| Oct 22, 03:14 AM ET | OpenAI | BUY | 5.2% | $8 |
| Oct 22, 03:14 AM ET | Anthropic | SELL | 94.9% | $1.1K |
| Oct 21, 11:42 AM ET | Anthropic | SELL | 94.8% | $379 |
| Oct 21, 10:03 AM ET | OpenAI | BUY | 5.2% | $16 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Anthropic at 95.0%. Next is OpenAI at 5.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-anthropic-or-openai-ipo-first?via=bro
$437.9K in total volume, with $950 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Anthropic, priced at 95.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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