As of October 24, 2026, 09:00 PM ET, Polymarket traders price $16B at 80.0% in Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 Greater China revenue be above __? — $2.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, $16B, is priced at 80.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.5 pts; past week: +4.0 pts.
Since October 14, 2026, $16B has traded between 61.0% and 85.0%. It opened at 61.0% and last traded at 80.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 76.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 80.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 80.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 80.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 84.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 80.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 80.0% |
$16B is favored at 80.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16B | 80¢ | 80.0% | -4.5 pts | $675 | 31.7% |
| $17B | 46¢ | 45.5% | -29.5 pts | $550 | 25.8% |
| $18B | 35¢ | 35.0% | +2.5 pts | $194 | 9.1% |
| $19B | 17¢ | 17.0% | -2.0 pts | $358 | 16.8% |
| $20B | 17¢ | 17.0% | -4.5 pts | $355 | 16.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 10¢ (bid 75¢ / ask 85¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.1K has been traded on this event in total, $186 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 02, 2026, 06:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple's Greater China revenue for the upcoming fourth fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 190 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | No | 190 | $38 |
| Bumpy-Conscience | Yes | 131 | $105 |
| Angelic-Craw | Yes | 60 | $48 |
| LIBAI | Yes | 57 | $45 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 26 | $5 |
| Cool-Pattypan | Yes | 20 | $16 |
| Real-Magazine | No | 20 | $4 |
| Detailed-Parachute | No | 20 | $4 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 10 | $2 |
| Apt-Antecedent | No | 1 | $0 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:31 AM ET | No | SELL | 51.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 06:03 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 68.0% | $14 |
| Oct 23, 06:03 PM ET | No | BUY | 10.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 06:03 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 90.0% | $18 |
| Oct 22, 04:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 43.0% | $22 |
| Oct 22, 04:36 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 57.0% | $11 |
| Oct 22, 12:08 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 12:08 AM ET | No | BUY | 79.0% | $16 |
| Oct 22, 12:07 AM ET | No | SELL | 78.0% | $16 |
| Oct 22, 12:07 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is $16B at 80.0%. Next is $17B at 45.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-apple-aapl-q4-greater-china-revenue-be-above-20261008120117000?via=bro
$2.1K in total volume, with $186 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 02, 2026, 06:00 PM ET.
$16B, priced at 80.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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