As of October 24, 2026, 09:01 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 95.7% in Will Dunesday beat Barbenheimer's opening weekend record? — $1.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 95.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past week: -1.7 pts; past month: -0.1 pts.
Since August 24, 2026, Yes has traded between 85.5% and 97.5%. It opened at 85.5% and last traded at 95.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 97.3% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.4% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.4% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.8% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.5% |
Yes is favored at 95.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 96¢ | 95.7% | -0.1 pts | $1.9K | 100.0% |
| No | 4¢ | 4.3% | +0.1 pts | $1.9K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 93¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.9K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the combined domestic Opening Weekend Box Office gross of "Dune: Part Three" and "Avengers: Doomsday" (both releasing December 18, 2026) is greater than the equivalent combined figure for "Barbenheimer" — "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" — of $244,477,464. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for each film's 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates), then added together. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If both "Dune: Part Three" and "Avengers: Doomsday" do not both release on the weekend of December 18 - December 20, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.the-numbers.com/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 237 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| stormshadow | Yes | 237 | $226 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 127 | $6 |
| Sharp-Hull | No | 40 | $2 |
| Essential-Diarist | No | 28 | $1 |
| Darling-Jazz | No | 22 | $1 |
| Mortified-Wetland | No | 20 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 02:46 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 96.2% | $114 |
| Oct 02, 11:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 96.4% | $106 |
| Oct 02, 10:10 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 96.9% | $206 |
| Sep 28, 04:10 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 98.7% | $21 |
| Sep 26, 01:47 PM ET | No | SELL | 1.2% | $2 |
| Sep 26, 01:43 PM ET | No | SELL | 1.3% | $2 |
| Sep 22, 07:08 AM ET | No | SELL | 2.0% | $0 |
| Sep 19, 05:04 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 97.0% | $39 |
| Sep 19, 04:53 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 96.9% | $50 |
| Sep 18, 10:06 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 90.1% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 95.7%. Next is No at 4.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-dunesday-beat-barbenheimers-opening-weekend-record?via=bro
$1.9K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.the-numbers.com/.
Yes, priced at 95.7% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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